LivingGLP1
Network meta-analysis

Serious adverse events

Overweight or obesity without diabetes (adults)

longest follow-upRecorded harmsDoses of a drug pooledHazard ratio (from event counts)
61
Randomized trials
32
Treatments
25,624
Participants
1,465
Events

In plain language

Across 61 trials with 25,624 participants, 0 of 31 treatments had a clearly better result than placebo on serious adverse events, and for 31 the evidence could not tell them apart from placebo. The most favorable estimate was for Exenatide injection: hazard ratio (from event counts) 0.17 (95% credible interval 0.00 to 5.00).

Lower values favor the treatment. "Clearly" means the 95% credible interval excludes no difference. These are averages across trials; they do not say how any one person will respond. Not medical advice.

Network of trials

Each circle is a treatment; each line joins treatments that were randomized against each other in at least one trial.
ALENIG_POBIMASEMA_SCBOFANG_SCCT388_SCDANU_PODAPIGL_SCEFPE_SCEXENER_SCEXEN_SCHRS7535_POLIFESTYLELIRA_SCLOTI_POMARI_SCMAZD_SCMETFORMINORFO_POORLISTATOTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumabOTHER_ACTIVE_botulinum_toxinOTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintidePLACEBORETA_SCSEMA_POSEMA_SCSITAGLIPTINSTANDARD_CARETERN60_POTG103_SCTIRZ_SCVCT220_POVK2735_SC
Node area shows participants; line width shows trials comparing two treatments directly. Blue: GLP-1 receptor agonist containing treatments; grey: comparators. Hover over or tab to a node or line for details.

Effects compared with Placebo

Hazard ratio (from event counts). Lower values favor the treatment.
0.010.020.050.10.20.250.51245102050100← favors treatmentfavors reference →Exenatide injectionMari scMetforminTg103 scOrlistatBotulinum toxinAlenig poRetatrutide injectionExenatide extended release injec…Tirzepatide injectionSemaglutide tabletOrforglipron tabletSemaglutide injectionStandard care or no added treatm…Liraglutide injectionBimasema scHRS-7535 tabletCagrilintideBimagrumabVk2735 scBofanglutide (GZR18) injectionLoti poDapigl scCt388 scTern60 poVct220 poLifestyle intervention (randomiz…SitagliptinDanuglipron tabletMazdutide injectionEfpe sc
Versus Placebo, log scale. Blue: Bayesian random effects posterior median with 95% credible interval (thick) and 95% prediction interval (dashed). Amber diamond: frequentist estimate with 95% confidence interval. Hover over or tab to a row for its values.
Effects of each treatment versus Placebo
TreatmentBayesian HR (95% CrI)95% prediction intervalFrequentist HR (95% CI)Verdict
Exenatide injection
EXEN_SC
0.17 (0.00 to 5.00)0.00 to 5.16Unclear
Mari sc
MARI_SC
0.41 (0.01 to 27.12)0.01 to 28.23Unclear
Metformin
METFORMIN
0.42 (0.00 to 33.77)0.00 to 34.52Unclear
Tg103 sc
TG103_SC
0.44 (0.01 to 29.89)0.01 to 29.12Unclear
Orlistat
ORLISTAT
0.51 (0.09 to 1.95)0.08 to 2.20Unclear
Botulinum toxin
OTHER_ACTIVE_botulinum_toxin
0.56 (0.01 to 35.66)0.01 to 37.38Unclear
Alenig po
ALENIG_PO
0.57 (0.13 to 2.88)0.12 to 3.13Unclear
Retatrutide injection
RETA_SC
0.90 (0.25 to 4.03)0.22 to 4.48Unclear
Exenatide extended release injection
EXENER_SC
0.90 (0.06 to 13.18)0.06 to 13.66Unclear
Tirzepatide injection
TIRZ_SC
1.06 (0.71 to 1.56)0.52 to 2.10Unclear
Semaglutide tablet
SEMA_PO
1.08 (0.53 to 2.16)0.43 to 2.67Unclear
Orforglipron tablet
ORFO_PO
1.12 (0.64 to 2.15)0.53 to 2.63Unclear
Semaglutide injection
SEMA_SC
1.20 (0.89 to 1.61)0.62 to 2.23Unclear
Standard care or no added treatment
STANDARD_CARE
1.26 (0.66 to 2.42)0.53 to 2.97Unclear
Liraglutide injection
LIRA_SC
1.36 (0.97 to 1.88)0.70 to 2.60Unclear
Bimasema sc
BIMASEMA_SC
1.40 (0.56 to 3.51)0.48 to 4.22Unclear
HRS-7535 tablet
HRS7535_PO
1.47 (0.26 to 13.94)0.24 to 14.65Unclear
Cagrilintide
OTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintide
1.47 (0.57 to 4.08)0.50 to 4.69Unclear
Bimagrumab
OTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumab
1.54 (0.52 to 4.51)0.45 to 5.10Unclear
Vk2735 sc
VK2735_SC
1.77 (0.31 to 18.52)0.30 to 19.01Unclear
Bofanglutide (GZR18) injection
BOFANG_SC
1.82 (0.35 to 17.25)0.32 to 18.05Unclear
Loti po
LOTI_PO
1.94 (0.58 to 8.02)0.52 to 8.95Unclear
Dapigl sc
DAPIGL_SC
2.17 (0.09 to 86.92)0.09 to 83.85Unclear
Ct388 sc
CT388_SC
3.09 (0.19 to 108)0.18 to 116Unclear
Tern60 po
TERN60_PO
3.21 (0.25 to 104)0.23 to 107Unclear
Vct220 po
VCT220_PO
3.61 (0.29 to 114)0.27 to 121Unclear
Lifestyle intervention (randomized arm)
LIFESTYLE
3.64 (0.17 to 67.53)0.16 to 72.64Unclear
Sitagliptin
SITAGLIPTIN
3.79 (0.17 to 69.51)0.16 to 73.56Unclear
Danuglipron tablet
DANU_PO
4.63 (0.47 to 133)0.46 to 138Unclear
Mazdutide injection
MAZD_SC
5.30 (0.80 to 75.59)0.74 to 81.00Unclear
Efpe sc
EFPE_SC
5.34 (0.56 to 137)0.52 to 140Unclear

Ranking

How likely each treatment is to be among the best. Rankings ignore the size of differences and their certainty, so read them with the effects above.

League table

Every treatment against every other: hazard ratio (from event counts) of the row treatment versus the column treatment, posterior median and 95% credible interval. Green: row clearly better; red: row clearly worse.
Every treatment in a row compared with every treatment in a column
Row versus columnPLACEBOEXEN_SCMARI_SCMETFORMINTG103_SCORLISTATOTHER_ACTIVE_botulinum_toxinALENIG_PORETA_SCEXENER_SCTIRZ_SCSEMA_POORFO_POSEMA_SCSTANDARD_CARELIRA_SCBIMASEMA_SCHRS7535_POOTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintideOTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumabVK2735_SCBOFANG_SCLOTI_PODAPIGL_SCCT388_SCTERN60_POVCT220_POLIFESTYLESITAGLIPTINDANU_POMAZD_SCEFPE_SC
PLACEBOPLACEBO5.89
0.20 to 328
2.45
0.04 to 177
2.36
0.03 to 210
2.27
0.03 to 186
1.97
0.51 to 11.44
1.78
0.03 to 147
1.76
0.35 to 7.54
1.11
0.25 to 3.95
1.11
0.08 to 17.08
0.94
0.64 to 1.42
0.93
0.46 to 1.90
0.90
0.46 to 1.57
0.83
0.62 to 1.12
0.79
0.41 to 1.53
0.74
0.53 to 1.03
0.71
0.28 to 1.79
0.68
0.07 to 3.88
0.68
0.25 to 1.75
0.65
0.22 to 1.92
0.57
0.05 to 3.18
0.55
0.06 to 2.87
0.52
0.12 to 1.73
0.46
0.01 to 11.08
0.32
0.01 to 5.29
0.31
0.01 to 4.01
0.28
0.01 to 3.48
0.27
0.01 to 5.85
0.26
0.01 to 5.88
0.22
0.01 to 2.14
0.19
0.01 to 1.25
0.19
0.01 to 1.79
EXEN_SC0.17
0.00 to 5.00
EXEN_SC0.38
0.00 to 96.15
0.38
0.00 to 91.61
0.36
0.00 to 99.24
0.34
0.00 to 14.57
0.27
0.00 to 69.34
0.28
0.00 to 10.83
0.18
0.00 to 6.80
0.18
0.00 to 14.12
0.16
0.00 to 4.84
0.15
0.00 to 5.11
0.15
0.00 to 4.63
0.14
0.00 to 4.20
0.13
0.00 to 4.08
0.12
0.00 to 3.65
0.12
0.00 to 4.17
0.11
0.00 to 5.34
0.11
0.00 to 3.87
0.11
0.00 to 3.83
0.09
0.00 to 4.08
0.08
0.00 to 3.85
0.09
0.00 to 3.26
0.07
0.00 to 8.98
0.05
0.00 to 4.56
0.05
0.00 to 3.69
0.04
0.00 to 3.44
0.05
0.00 to 3.85
0.04
0.00 to 4.62
0.03
0.00 to 2.43
0.03
0.00 to 1.48
0.03
0.00 to 2.08
MARI_SC0.41
0.01 to 27.12
2.64
0.01 to 722
MARI_SC0.96
0.00 to 472
0.92
0.00 to 431
0.86
0.01 to 78.69
0.74
0.00 to 352
0.72
0.01 to 66.03
0.45
0.00 to 37.65
0.44
0.00 to 65.36
0.38
0.01 to 26.68
0.39
0.00 to 27.67
0.36
0.00 to 25.45
0.34
0.00 to 22.81
0.32
0.00 to 23.58
0.30
0.00 to 19.52
0.29
0.00 to 21.87
0.28
0.00 to 27.68
0.27
0.00 to 20.50
0.27
0.00 to 20.77
0.22
0.00 to 19.78
0.20
0.00 to 19.84
0.21
0.00 to 17.27
0.19
0.00 to 44.05
0.12
0.00 to 23.30
0.12
0.00 to 19.25
0.10
0.00 to 16.26
0.11
0.00 to 20.00
0.11
0.00 to 21.58
0.08
0.00 to 11.77
0.07
0.00 to 8.12
0.07
0.00 to 9.72
METFORMIN0.42
0.00 to 33.77
2.65
0.01 to 717
1.04
0.00 to 444
METFORMIN1.02
0.00 to 438
0.88
0.01 to 93.61
0.79
0.00 to 359
0.73
0.01 to 70.48
0.46
0.00 to 42.08
0.45
0.00 to 89.06
0.40
0.00 to 32.15
0.39
0.00 to 35.91
0.38
0.00 to 31.38
0.36
0.00 to 28.37
0.34
0.00 to 29.21
0.32
0.00 to 24.95
0.30
0.00 to 25.99
0.28
0.00 to 34.44
0.28
0.00 to 24.59
0.28
0.00 to 26.05
0.22
0.00 to 25.52
0.22
0.00 to 22.57
0.21
0.00 to 19.97
0.18
0.00 to 50.69
0.13
0.00 to 25.55
0.12
0.00 to 21.43
0.11
0.00 to 19.18
0.12
0.00 to 25.42
0.11
0.00 to 23.93
0.08
0.00 to 13.12
0.07
0.00 to 9.88
0.07
0.00 to 11.13
TG103_SC0.44
0.01 to 29.89
2.74
0.01 to 817
1.09
0.00 to 440
0.98
0.00 to 489
TG103_SC0.92
0.01 to 82.96
0.77
0.00 to 352
0.74
0.01 to 67.88
0.49
0.00 to 37.51
0.47
0.00 to 85.18
0.41
0.00 to 29.55
0.43
0.00 to 27.79
0.40
0.00 to 26.05
0.37
0.00 to 25.06
0.35
0.00 to 24.80
0.32
0.00 to 21.85
0.30
0.00 to 23.75
0.28
0.00 to 26.85
0.29
0.00 to 21.41
0.29
0.00 to 21.89
0.23
0.00 to 22.55
0.23
0.00 to 22.31
0.22
0.00 to 17.56
0.19
0.00 to 38.41
0.13
0.00 to 21.60
0.12
0.00 to 20.60
0.11
0.00 to 18.05
0.12
0.00 to 20.69
0.12
0.00 to 22.11
0.09
0.00 to 11.43
0.07
0.00 to 8.60
0.08
0.00 to 9.56
ORLISTAT0.51
0.09 to 1.95
2.95
0.07 to 219
1.17
0.01 to 122
1.13
0.01 to 133
1.09
0.01 to 113
ORLISTAT0.86
0.01 to 92.35
0.86
0.08 to 6.40
0.54
0.06 to 3.60
0.54
0.02 to 11.48
0.48
0.08 to 1.96
0.47
0.07 to 2.24
0.45
0.07 to 1.98
0.42
0.07 to 1.70
0.40
0.06 to 1.80
0.38
0.06 to 1.42
0.36
0.05 to 1.81
0.33
0.02 to 3.31
0.34
0.04 to 1.71
0.33
0.04 to 1.83
0.27
0.02 to 2.61
0.25
0.02 to 2.54
0.25
0.03 to 1.66
0.22
0.00 to 7.83
0.15
0.00 to 3.69
0.15
0.00 to 3.01
0.13
0.00 to 2.55
0.14
0.01 to 3.80
0.13
0.00 to 4.05
0.10
0.00 to 1.59
0.09
0.00 to 1.03
0.09
0.00 to 1.35
OTHER_ACTIVE_botulinum_toxin0.56
0.01 to 35.66
3.67
0.01 to 983
1.35
0.00 to 643
1.26
0.00 to 574
1.30
0.00 to 591
1.16
0.01 to 102
OTHER_ACTIVE_botulinum_toxin0.95
0.01 to 81.98
0.60
0.01 to 47.81
0.62
0.00 to 99.56
0.52
0.01 to 34.19
0.52
0.01 to 38.11
0.49
0.01 to 33.89
0.47
0.01 to 29.32
0.44
0.01 to 29.52
0.41
0.01 to 27.03
0.41
0.00 to 28.09
0.38
0.00 to 34.31
0.37
0.00 to 26.73
0.36
0.00 to 26.49
0.30
0.00 to 25.67
0.29
0.00 to 24.06
0.29
0.00 to 22.08
0.25
0.00 to 47.72
0.17
0.00 to 25.71
0.16
0.00 to 24.12
0.14
0.00 to 20.71
0.15
0.00 to 26.43
0.15
0.00 to 23.68
0.10
0.00 to 14.21
0.10
0.00 to 9.94
0.10
0.00 to 12.30
ALENIG_PO0.57
0.13 to 2.88
3.53
0.09 to 244
1.39
0.02 to 143
1.36
0.01 to 152
1.35
0.01 to 154
1.17
0.16 to 11.94
1.06
0.01 to 109
ALENIG_PO0.62
0.08 to 5.02
0.64
0.03 to 15.41
0.54
0.12 to 2.83
0.53
0.11 to 3.20
0.51
0.10 to 2.78
0.47
0.11 to 2.44
0.45
0.09 to 2.56
0.42
0.10 to 2.17
0.41
0.07 to 2.54
0.38
0.03 to 3.93
0.39
0.06 to 2.43
0.37
0.06 to 2.55
0.32
0.02 to 3.23
0.30
0.02 to 3.23
0.29
0.04 to 2.20
0.26
0.00 to 10.12
0.18
0.00 to 4.77
0.17
0.00 to 3.81
0.15
0.00 to 3.27
0.16
0.01 to 4.71
0.16
0.01 to 4.47
0.12
0.00 to 1.99
0.11
0.01 to 1.30
0.11
0.00 to 1.74
RETA_SC0.90
0.25 to 4.03
5.59
0.15 to 416
2.22
0.03 to 217
2.19
0.02 to 234
2.06
0.03 to 224
1.86
0.28 to 17.77
1.67
0.02 to 168
1.61
0.20 to 11.91
RETA_SC1.02
0.05 to 21.68
0.84
0.22 to 4.03
0.84
0.20 to 4.43
0.80
0.19 to 3.90
0.75
0.20 to 3.47
0.73
0.17 to 3.80
0.66
0.18 to 3.07
0.65
0.14 to 3.81
0.62
0.05 to 6.07
0.60
0.12 to 3.59
0.60
0.11 to 3.64
0.51
0.04 to 4.66
0.48
0.04 to 4.44
0.46
0.07 to 3.16
0.42
0.01 to 14.54
0.30
0.01 to 7.20
0.28
0.01 to 5.37
0.25
0.01 to 4.82
0.25
0.01 to 7.37
0.24
0.01 to 7.83
0.19
0.01 to 2.89
0.17
0.01 to 1.88
0.17
0.01 to 2.45
EXENER_SC0.90
0.06 to 13.18
5.49
0.07 to 635
2.28
0.02 to 323
2.23
0.01 to 360
2.11
0.01 to 374
1.87
0.09 to 42.57
1.60
0.01 to 275
1.56
0.06 to 34.88
0.98
0.05 to 19.91
EXENER_SC0.86
0.05 to 12.39
0.85
0.05 to 13.30
0.81
0.05 to 12.85
0.76
0.05 to 10.67
0.72
0.04 to 10.74
0.67
0.04 to 10.30
0.64
0.04 to 10.55
0.60
0.02 to 16.12
0.61
0.03 to 10.55
0.58
0.03 to 10.76
0.48
0.02 to 12.43
0.47
0.02 to 11.89
0.45
0.02 to 8.67
0.41
0.00 to 26.84
0.28
0.00 to 14.43
0.26
0.00 to 12.76
0.24
0.00 to 10.38
0.25
0.00 to 14.69
0.24
0.00 to 13.95
0.17
0.00 to 6.95
0.16
0.00 to 4.47
0.16
0.00 to 5.77
TIRZ_SC1.06
0.71 to 1.56
6.26
0.21 to 370
2.64
0.04 to 195
2.50
0.03 to 234
2.42
0.03 to 211
2.10
0.51 to 12.95
1.91
0.03 to 149
1.87
0.35 to 8.51
1.19
0.25 to 4.51
1.16
0.08 to 18.79
TIRZ_SC0.99
0.44 to 2.25
0.95
0.43 to 1.88
0.88
0.56 to 1.38
0.84
0.44 to 1.59
0.79
0.48 to 1.26
0.75
0.28 to 1.99
0.72
0.07 to 4.40
0.72
0.24 to 1.97
0.69
0.22 to 2.18
0.60
0.06 to 3.50
0.57
0.06 to 3.29
0.55
0.13 to 1.96
0.49
0.01 to 12.42
0.34
0.01 to 5.86
0.33
0.01 to 4.46
0.29
0.01 to 3.90
0.29
0.02 to 6.20
0.28
0.01 to 6.32
0.23
0.01 to 2.21
0.20
0.01 to 1.37
0.20
0.01 to 1.98
SEMA_PO1.08
0.53 to 2.16
6.52
0.20 to 374
2.58
0.04 to 207
2.56
0.03 to 233
2.34
0.04 to 235
2.14
0.45 to 14.28
1.92
0.03 to 167
1.90
0.31 to 9.33
1.19
0.23 to 5.06
1.18
0.08 to 19.05
1.01
0.44 to 2.29
SEMA_PO0.96
0.36 to 2.31
0.89
0.41 to 1.92
0.85
0.32 to 2.22
0.79
0.36 to 1.70
0.76
0.24 to 2.34
0.73
0.07 to 4.76
0.72
0.21 to 2.24
0.69
0.19 to 2.57
0.59
0.05 to 3.89
0.58
0.06 to 3.68
0.55
0.13 to 1.91
0.49
0.01 to 12.73
0.35
0.01 to 6.34
0.33
0.01 to 4.75
0.30
0.01 to 4.05
0.29
0.01 to 7.22
0.28
0.01 to 6.48
0.23
0.01 to 2.43
0.20
0.01 to 1.56
0.20
0.01 to 2.24
ORFO_PO1.12
0.64 to 2.15
6.76
0.22 to 389
2.75
0.04 to 218
2.66
0.03 to 247
2.51
0.04 to 230
2.23
0.50 to 14.41
2.05
0.03 to 177
1.96
0.36 to 9.62
1.25
0.26 to 5.21
1.23
0.08 to 21.20
1.05
0.53 to 2.33
1.05
0.43 to 2.75
ORFO_PO0.93
0.50 to 1.92
0.89
0.38 to 2.27
0.83
0.44 to 1.69
0.80
0.28 to 2.46
0.77
0.07 to 4.96
0.76
0.23 to 2.42
0.73
0.22 to 2.71
0.63
0.06 to 3.88
0.61
0.06 to 3.59
0.58
0.12 to 2.32
0.51
0.01 to 13.40
0.37
0.01 to 6.57
0.36
0.01 to 4.80
0.31
0.01 to 4.35
0.31
0.02 to 7.29
0.30
0.02 to 6.83
0.24
0.01 to 2.61
0.21
0.01 to 1.58
0.21
0.01 to 2.21
SEMA_SC1.20
0.89 to 1.61
7.20
0.24 to 405
2.91
0.04 to 214
2.81
0.04 to 256
2.74
0.04 to 237
2.37
0.59 to 14.05
2.11
0.03 to 178
2.12
0.41 to 9.16
1.33
0.29 to 4.96
1.32
0.09 to 20.49
1.13
0.72 to 1.78
1.12
0.52 to 2.45
1.08
0.52 to 1.98
SEMA_SC0.96
0.47 to 1.92
0.89
0.59 to 1.33
0.86
0.36 to 2.02
0.82
0.08 to 4.89
0.82
0.28 to 2.11
0.78
0.28 to 2.29
0.68
0.07 to 3.91
0.66
0.07 to 3.56
0.62
0.15 to 2.14
0.57
0.01 to 12.99
0.39
0.01 to 6.49
0.37
0.01 to 4.96
0.33
0.01 to 4.17
0.33
0.02 to 7.27
0.32
0.02 to 7.28
0.26
0.01 to 2.61
0.23
0.02 to 1.54
0.23
0.01 to 2.17
STANDARD_CARE1.26
0.66 to 2.42
7.45
0.25 to 445
3.11
0.04 to 228
2.98
0.03 to 287
2.87
0.04 to 251
2.50
0.55 to 15.72
2.25
0.03 to 185
2.21
0.39 to 10.63
1.38
0.26 to 5.99
1.39
0.09 to 22.43
1.19
0.63 to 2.29
1.18
0.45 to 3.11
1.12
0.44 to 2.63
1.05
0.52 to 2.13
STANDARD_CARE0.93
0.48 to 1.79
0.89
0.30 to 2.79
0.85
0.08 to 5.60
0.85
0.26 to 2.68
0.81
0.24 to 2.97
0.71
0.06 to 4.54
0.68
0.07 to 4.20
0.64
0.14 to 2.51
0.58
0.01 to 16.09
0.40
0.01 to 7.58
0.39
0.01 to 5.71
0.35
0.01 to 5.06
0.34
0.02 to 7.71
0.33
0.02 to 7.95
0.27
0.01 to 2.88
0.24
0.01 to 1.79
0.24
0.01 to 2.55
LIRA_SC1.36
0.97 to 1.88
8.08
0.27 to 467
3.33
0.05 to 246
3.15
0.04 to 289
3.08
0.05 to 259
2.66
0.71 to 15.46
2.45
0.04 to 193
2.36
0.46 to 10.50
1.51
0.33 to 5.60
1.50
0.10 to 23.51
1.27
0.80 to 2.09
1.26
0.59 to 2.80
1.21
0.59 to 2.30
1.12
0.75 to 1.71
1.08
0.56 to 2.07
LIRA_SC0.96
0.38 to 2.48
0.92
0.10 to 5.36
0.93
0.33 to 2.36
0.88
0.29 to 2.75
0.77
0.07 to 4.39
0.74
0.08 to 4.01
0.70
0.16 to 2.43
0.63
0.02 to 15.46
0.43
0.01 to 7.20
0.42
0.01 to 5.61
0.37
0.01 to 4.98
0.37
0.02 to 7.70
0.36
0.02 to 7.80
0.29
0.01 to 2.96
0.26
0.02 to 1.75
0.26
0.01 to 2.55
BIMASEMA_SC1.40
0.56 to 3.51
8.51
0.24 to 543
3.47
0.05 to 277
3.33
0.04 to 345
3.28
0.04 to 306
2.80
0.55 to 19.06
2.44
0.04 to 234
2.45
0.39 to 14.51
1.55
0.26 to 7.36
1.57
0.09 to 27.37
1.33
0.50 to 3.55
1.32
0.43 to 4.19
1.26
0.41 to 3.63
1.17
0.49 to 2.78
1.13
0.36 to 3.34
1.04
0.40 to 2.65
BIMASEMA_SC0.95
0.09 to 6.94
0.95
0.25 to 3.40
0.92
0.36 to 2.51
0.78
0.07 to 5.55
0.76
0.07 to 5.16
0.72
0.14 to 3.25
0.65
0.02 to 17.28
0.45
0.01 to 8.54
0.44
0.01 to 6.75
0.39
0.01 to 5.87
0.39
0.02 to 9.62
0.38
0.02 to 8.88
0.29
0.01 to 3.49
0.26
0.02 to 2.19
0.26
0.01 to 3.19
HRS7535_PO1.47
0.26 to 13.94
9.35
0.19 to 801
3.62
0.04 to 478
3.63
0.03 to 611
3.53
0.04 to 466
3.05
0.30 to 47.34
2.66
0.03 to 373
2.64
0.25 to 36.28
1.61
0.16 to 21.68
1.67
0.06 to 49.56
1.39
0.23 to 13.53
1.38
0.21 to 14.57
1.30
0.20 to 13.34
1.22
0.20 to 11.84
1.17
0.18 to 12.17
1.08
0.19 to 10.42
1.05
0.14 to 11.60
HRS7535_PO0.99
0.14 to 11.11
0.95
0.12 to 11.30
0.81
0.05 to 14.01
0.80
0.05 to 13.03
0.75
0.08 to 9.29
0.70
0.01 to 31.51
0.49
0.01 to 16.16
0.47
0.01 to 13.33
0.41
0.01 to 11.17
0.42
0.01 to 16.95
0.40
0.01 to 16.76
0.32
0.01 to 7.69
0.27
0.01 to 5.12
0.28
0.01 to 6.49
OTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintide1.47
0.57 to 4.08
8.93
0.26 to 583
3.65
0.05 to 321
3.51
0.04 to 343
3.42
0.05 to 304
2.94
0.59 to 22.28
2.68
0.04 to 245
2.60
0.41 to 15.84
1.65
0.28 to 8.51
1.65
0.09 to 31.59
1.39
0.51 to 4.11
1.38
0.45 to 4.73
1.31
0.41 to 4.27
1.22
0.47 to 3.56
1.17
0.37 to 3.82
1.08
0.42 to 2.99
1.05
0.29 to 4.00
1.01
0.09 to 7.37
OTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintide0.96
0.23 to 4.31
0.83
0.07 to 5.95
0.78
0.07 to 5.92
0.76
0.14 to 3.65
0.69
0.02 to 20.84
0.48
0.01 to 9.61
0.46
0.01 to 7.25
0.41
0.01 to 6.35
0.41
0.02 to 10.58
0.40
0.02 to 9.71
0.32
0.01 to 3.86
0.28
0.02 to 2.43
0.28
0.01 to 3.44
OTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumab1.54
0.52 to 4.51
9.04
0.26 to 586
3.70
0.05 to 300
3.62
0.04 to 365
3.48
0.05 to 320
3.02
0.55 to 23.12
2.75
0.04 to 259
2.70
0.39 to 16.04
1.68
0.27 to 9.10
1.72
0.09 to 30.58
1.45
0.46 to 4.54
1.44
0.39 to 5.23
1.37
0.37 to 4.52
1.28
0.44 to 3.56
1.24
0.34 to 4.20
1.13
0.36 to 3.46
1.09
0.40 to 2.80
1.05
0.09 to 8.26
1.04
0.23 to 4.31
OTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumab0.85
0.07 to 6.51
0.83
0.07 to 6.11
0.78
0.13 to 4.04
0.70
0.02 to 20.86
0.49
0.01 to 9.92
0.48
0.01 to 7.73
0.41
0.01 to 6.69
0.42
0.02 to 10.63
0.41
0.02 to 10.29
0.32
0.01 to 4.23
0.28
0.02 to 2.54
0.29
0.01 to 3.57
VK2735_SC1.77
0.31 to 18.52
11.24
0.25 to 1049
4.59
0.05 to 503
4.54
0.04 to 640
4.38
0.04 to 589
3.69
0.38 to 58.67
3.30
0.04 to 414
3.14
0.31 to 46.88
1.98
0.21 to 26.45
2.08
0.08 to 66.37
1.67
0.29 to 17.88
1.68
0.26 to 18.67
1.59
0.26 to 16.37
1.48
0.26 to 15.12
1.42
0.22 to 16.38
1.30
0.23 to 13.67
1.28
0.18 to 14.14
1.24
0.07 to 21.53
1.21
0.17 to 14.12
1.18
0.15 to 14.36
VK2735_SC0.97
0.06 to 16.23
0.93
0.10 to 12.29
0.84
0.01 to 41.71
0.61
0.01 to 21.10
0.56
0.01 to 16.35
0.49
0.01 to 15.49
0.52
0.02 to 21.64
0.49
0.02 to 22.01
0.38
0.01 to 9.78
0.34
0.01 to 6.63
0.34
0.01 to 8.52
BOFANG_SC1.82
0.35 to 17.25
12.12
0.26 to 1035
4.99
0.05 to 544
4.56
0.04 to 658
4.37
0.04 to 611
3.93
0.39 to 64.16
3.48
0.04 to 405
3.28
0.31 to 47.16
2.08
0.23 to 25.59
2.13
0.08 to 60.83
1.74
0.30 to 16.57
1.74
0.27 to 17.67
1.63
0.28 to 16.55
1.52
0.28 to 14.66
1.48
0.24 to 14.97
1.35
0.25 to 12.68
1.32
0.19 to 14.50
1.25
0.08 to 21.43
1.28
0.17 to 13.57
1.20
0.16 to 14.38
1.04
0.06 to 16.98
BOFANG_SC0.95
0.10 to 12.02
0.86
0.02 to 43.18
0.61
0.01 to 21.06
0.59
0.01 to 15.95
0.52
0.01 to 15.41
0.54
0.02 to 21.91
0.52
0.02 to 20.75
0.40
0.01 to 9.74
0.35
0.01 to 6.58
0.35
0.01 to 8.55
LOTI_PO1.94
0.58 to 8.02
11.76
0.31 to 862
4.79
0.06 to 432
4.72
0.05 to 480
4.62
0.06 to 494
3.98
0.60 to 38.48
3.46
0.05 to 350
3.46
0.45 to 25.28
2.15
0.32 to 14.69
2.21
0.12 to 45.43
1.83
0.51 to 7.99
1.81
0.52 to 7.77
1.72
0.43 to 8.12
1.61
0.47 to 6.73
1.55
0.40 to 7.12
1.43
0.41 to 6.09
1.39
0.31 to 7.26
1.33
0.11 to 12.47
1.31
0.27 to 7.08
1.29
0.25 to 7.52
1.08
0.08 to 10.14
1.05
0.08 to 9.62
LOTI_PO0.89
0.02 to 27.88
0.64
0.02 to 15.06
0.60
0.02 to 11.37
0.54
0.01 to 10.47
0.54
0.02 to 15.79
0.53
0.02 to 14.68
0.41
0.01 to 6.05
0.37
0.02 to 3.96
0.37
0.01 to 5.50
DAPIGL_SC2.17
0.09 to 86.92
14.37
0.11 to 2821
5.34
0.02 to 1657
5.45
0.02 to 1818
5.31
0.03 to 1353
4.52
0.13 to 255
4.01
0.02 to 1188
3.79
0.10 to 200
2.37
0.07 to 121
2.43
0.04 to 232
2.04
0.08 to 77.91
2.03
0.08 to 85.91
1.95
0.07 to 83.37
1.77
0.08 to 71.71
1.73
0.06 to 72.41
1.58
0.06 to 62.52
1.53
0.06 to 63.97
1.43
0.03 to 80.76
1.45
0.05 to 65.07
1.43
0.05 to 62.65
1.19
0.02 to 70.48
1.16
0.02 to 64.55
1.13
0.04 to 50.06
DAPIGL_SC0.69
0.01 to 66.72
0.65
0.01 to 62.02
0.58
0.01 to 48.18
0.61
0.01 to 67.19
0.59
0.01 to 61.40
0.44
0.00 to 33.86
0.39
0.01 to 24.61
0.39
0.00 to 30.77
CT388_SC3.09
0.19 to 108
20.90
0.22 to 3671
8.05
0.04 to 2348
7.81
0.04 to 2246
7.57
0.05 to 1748
6.59
0.27 to 322
5.87
0.04 to 1400
5.42
0.21 to 280
3.38
0.14 to 149
3.60
0.07 to 278
2.94
0.17 to 106
2.89
0.16 to 109
2.72
0.15 to 102
2.59
0.15 to 91.61
2.48
0.13 to 93.77
2.30
0.14 to 79.73
2.23
0.12 to 79.59
2.04
0.06 to 103
2.10
0.10 to 81.37
2.06
0.10 to 79.19
1.63
0.05 to 95.36
1.63
0.05 to 84.06
1.57
0.07 to 65.41
1.45
0.01 to 146
CT388_SC0.95
0.01 to 81.75
0.84
0.01 to 64.19
0.90
0.01 to 93.32
0.87
0.01 to 90.52
0.65
0.01 to 42.15
0.57
0.01 to 30.57
0.55
0.01 to 42.26
TERN60_PO3.21
0.25 to 104
21.30
0.27 to 3399
8.56
0.05 to 1720
8.42
0.05 to 2072
8.13
0.05 to 1893
6.75
0.33 to 337
6.44
0.04 to 1600
5.82
0.26 to 220
3.59
0.19 to 130
3.88
0.08 to 259
3.01
0.22 to 95.79
3.02
0.21 to 104
2.81
0.21 to 92.86
2.69
0.20 to 88.87
2.57
0.18 to 84.39
2.37
0.18 to 78.71
2.28
0.15 to 80.16
2.11
0.08 to 117
2.16
0.14 to 82.28
2.10
0.13 to 79.27
1.79
0.06 to 83.64
1.71
0.06 to 77.96
1.66
0.09 to 63.47
1.54
0.02 to 152
1.06
0.01 to 85.34
TERN60_PO0.90
0.01 to 60.45
0.95
0.02 to 83.20
0.91
0.02 to 84.56
0.66
0.01 to 41.65
0.59
0.01 to 33.32
0.60
0.01 to 38.66
VCT220_PO3.61
0.29 to 114
24.00
0.29 to 4322
9.55
0.06 to 2206
9.32
0.05 to 2546
9.11
0.06 to 2110
7.63
0.39 to 298
6.98
0.05 to 1523
6.51
0.31 to 265
4.02
0.21 to 156
4.16
0.10 to 296
3.46
0.26 to 106
3.35
0.25 to 113
3.27
0.23 to 105
3.03
0.24 to 96.05
2.88
0.20 to 90.06
2.69
0.20 to 85.18
2.57
0.17 to 85.44
2.44
0.09 to 106
2.44
0.16 to 88.84
2.43
0.15 to 84.83
2.05
0.06 to 93.90
1.93
0.06 to 87.41
1.86
0.10 to 69.45
1.71
0.02 to 168
1.20
0.02 to 103
1.11
0.02 to 74.84
VCT220_PO1.10
0.02 to 88.56
1.04
0.02 to 92.17
0.76
0.01 to 43.89
0.67
0.02 to 34.82
0.68
0.01 to 38.70
LIFESTYLE3.64
0.17 to 67.53
21.81
0.26 to 3182
8.77
0.05 to 1499
8.44
0.04 to 1884
8.10
0.05 to 1629
7.37
0.26 to 197
6.47
0.04 to 1266
6.18
0.21 to 163
3.93
0.14 to 101
4.05
0.07 to 208
3.40
0.16 to 64.65
3.42
0.14 to 68.17
3.21
0.14 to 63.31
3.03
0.14 to 58.75
2.95
0.13 to 57.20
2.71
0.13 to 49.28
2.54
0.10 to 54.13
2.39
0.06 to 76.40
2.45
0.09 to 54.10
2.37
0.09 to 53.67
1.93
0.05 to 59.91
1.84
0.05 to 58.82
1.84
0.06 to 44.55
1.63
0.01 to 125
1.11
0.01 to 71.46
1.06
0.01 to 53.69
0.91
0.01 to 51.09
LIFESTYLE0.95
0.03 to 27.94
0.70
0.01 to 34.45
0.65
0.01 to 23.99
0.64
0.01 to 28.44
SITAGLIPTIN3.79
0.17 to 69.51
22.72
0.22 to 3475
9.34
0.05 to 1559
8.81
0.04 to 2118
8.21
0.05 to 2005
7.72
0.25 to 222
6.66
0.04 to 1178
6.43
0.22 to 178
4.13
0.13 to 101
4.10
0.07 to 224
3.58
0.16 to 67.80
3.58
0.15 to 73.44
3.36
0.15 to 64.07
3.14
0.14 to 59.51
3.00
0.13 to 56.59
2.81
0.13 to 51.21
2.65
0.11 to 56.37
2.47
0.06 to 79.44
2.52
0.10 to 52.06
2.41
0.10 to 54.58
2.03
0.05 to 65.72
1.92
0.05 to 62.88
1.90
0.07 to 45.69
1.69
0.02 to 130
1.14
0.01 to 71.78
1.10
0.01 to 56.79
0.96
0.01 to 54.84
1.05
0.04 to 29.77
SITAGLIPTIN0.74
0.01 to 34.49
0.66
0.01 to 22.86
0.66
0.01 to 28.55
DANU_PO4.63
0.47 to 133
32.88
0.41 to 4929
12.65
0.08 to 2671
12.35
0.08 to 2932
11.76
0.09 to 2708
9.93
0.63 to 394
9.67
0.07 to 2278
8.41
0.50 to 314
5.17
0.35 to 174
5.77
0.14 to 371
4.37
0.45 to 129
4.37
0.41 to 131
4.13
0.38 to 128
3.88
0.38 to 112
3.70
0.35 to 114
3.42
0.34 to 102
3.41
0.29 to 104
3.17
0.13 to 138
3.14
0.26 to 110
3.09
0.24 to 97.60
2.65
0.10 to 113
2.52
0.10 to 108
2.42
0.17 to 81.44
2.27
0.03 to 213
1.53
0.02 to 126
1.52
0.02 to 99.86
1.32
0.02 to 82.09
1.43
0.03 to 117
1.35
0.03 to 116
DANU_PO0.88
0.03 to 40.21
0.90
0.02 to 51.53
MAZD_SC5.30
0.80 to 75.59
35.76
0.67 to 4071
13.69
0.12 to 1979
14.13
0.10 to 2423
13.41
0.12 to 2282
11.15
0.97 to 254
10.27
0.10 to 1566
9.43
0.77 to 194
5.94
0.53 to 115
6.22
0.22 to 238
5.00
0.73 to 72.67
4.97
0.64 to 75.78
4.77
0.63 to 72.74
4.43
0.65 to 62.67
4.24
0.56 to 67.34
3.92
0.57 to 57.30
3.80
0.46 to 60.78
3.65
0.20 to 87.09
3.61
0.41 to 61.26
3.54
0.39 to 63.39
2.91
0.15 to 67.84
2.86
0.15 to 66.82
2.72
0.25 to 49.81
2.54
0.04 to 157
1.74
0.03 to 80.92
1.70
0.03 to 77.17
1.48
0.03 to 57.03
1.55
0.04 to 82.95
1.51
0.04 to 80.87
1.13
0.02 to 36.64
MAZD_SC1.02
0.02 to 33.59
EFPE_SC5.34
0.56 to 137
34.87
0.48 to 4549
14.05
0.10 to 2894
13.37
0.09 to 2904
12.98
0.10 to 2561
11.21
0.74 to 404
10.06
0.08 to 2188
9.44
0.58 to 316
5.83
0.41 to 182
6.08
0.17 to 349
5.02
0.50 to 137
4.95
0.45 to 135
4.74
0.45 to 128
4.42
0.46 to 112
4.19
0.39 to 114
3.89
0.39 to 104
3.79
0.31 to 107
3.60
0.15 to 152
3.54
0.29 to 105
3.49
0.28 to 104
2.97
0.12 to 111
2.87
0.12 to 101
2.73
0.18 to 83.19
2.56
0.03 to 224
1.80
0.02 to 113
1.67
0.03 to 106
1.47
0.03 to 89.93
1.57
0.04 to 108
1.51
0.04 to 104
1.11
0.02 to 57.56
0.99
0.03 to 41.84
EFPE_SC

Heterogeneity, fit and convergence

Bayesian random effects (primary)

Heterogeneity (tau)
0.243 (95% CrI 0.078 to 0.506), log scale
Residual deviance
113.8 for 130 data points
DIC
183.0 (pD 69.1)
Largest R-hat
1.002
Smallest ESS
bulk 2,121, tail 3,695
Divergent transitions
0
Convergence
All criteria met
Priors
PR02 N(0, 5^2); PR05 N(0, 2.5^2); PR09 log normal(-1.87, 1.52^2) on tau^2 (Adverse events, pharm vs placebo control)

Inconsistency

Do trials comparing two treatments directly agree with the indirect evidence through other treatments?

No comparison here has both direct and indirect evidence, so inconsistency cannot be checked by node splitting.

Small study effects

A comparison adjusted funnel plot: each point is one trial comparison, centered on its own network estimate. Asymmetry can signal that small trials with unfavorable results are missing.

Fewer than ten trial comparisons, too few to judge funnel plot asymmetry.

Comparability of the trials

Checked across designs (the set of treatments each trial compares) for eligibility, outcome definition and assessment, and the baseline factors above. Flags point to possible intransitivity; notes describe variation that is not tied to design.
  • FlagEligibility, hba1c entry range: a design requires hba1c 7 or more while another admits only 6.5 or less
  • NoteOutcome assessment, time point: selected time points span 4.29 to 193 weeks
  • NoteOutcome assessment, analysis set: mixed: completers 1, randomized 14, safety 46
  • NoteOutcome assessment, definition: mixed: deaths 1, deaths in safety population 1, not stated 57, participants with serious treatment emergent adverse events 1, serious adverse events 1
  • NoteOutcome assessment, intercurrent events (discontinuation): mixed: not stated 60, while_on_treatment 1
  • NoteOutcome assessment, intercurrent events (rescue): mixed: not stated 60, treatment_policy 1
  • NoteRisk of bias, blinding: mixed: double_blind 51, open_label 8, single_blind 2
  • NoteRisk of bias, funding: mixed: industry 51, mixed 4, non_industry 5, not_reported 1
  • NoteData handling, input conversions: arms_combined 28, printed_denominator 6
Comparability items per trial
Trialanalysis settime weeksdefinitioninstrumentadjudicatedproportion methodintercurrent events (discontinuation)intercurrent events (rescue)blindingfundingstart yearEligibility
TOGETHER-PsOsafety36not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot statedopen_labelindustry2024adults; moderate to severe plaque psoriasis; PASI 12 or more; BMI 30 or more, or 27 to 30 with comorbidity
NCT04081337randomized22not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2020age 18 to 60; BMI 30 to 45; no diabetes; at least one metabolic impairment
SURMOUNT-5safety72not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot statedopen_labelindustry2023adults; BMI 30 or more, or 27 with complication; no diabetes
NCT02717858safety16.1serious adverse eventsnot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2016age 18 to 64, BMI 27 or more, no diabetes, no gallbladder disease
NCT05268627randomized16not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot statedopen_labelnon_industry2021BMI above 30; age 20 to 60 years
NCT01784965randomized14not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindmixed2009age 40 to 70; BMI 27 to 40; prediabetes by fasting or 2 h glucose; no T2D
STEP 1safety75not statednot statednot statednot statedwhile_on_treatmenttreatment_policydouble_blindindustry2018adults; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with a weight related condition; no diabetes; HbA1c below 6.5 percent
NCT03523273randomized18not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindnon_industry2017age 18 to 65; BMI 30 or more; no diabetes; no delayed gastric emptying
STEP 5safety111not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2018age 18 or older; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; no diabetes; HbA1c below 6.5 percent
NCT05786521randomized20not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot statedopen_labelnon_industry2023age 65 or older; BMI 27 to 40; HbA1c 5.7 to 7.5 percent or fasting glucose above 100 mg/dL
NCT04707313safety37not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2021age 18 to 75; BMI 30 or higher; no diabetes; stable weight
NCT04311411safety10deathsnot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2020adults 18 to 65, BMI 27 to 50, no diabetes, HbA1c below 6.5
NCT03041792safety10.43not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2017age 18 to 75; BMI 30 to 40; no diabetes; HbA1c below 6.5 percent
NCT05579977safety28not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2022age 18 to 75; T2D cohort on metformin, HbA1c 7.0 to 10.0, BMI 23 or more; obesity cohort BMI 30 or more without diabetes
BARIOPTIMISErandomized28not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindmixed2018adults at least 1 year after RYGB or sleeve gastrectomy with 20 percent or less weight loss and suboptimal GLP-1 response
NCT04838405randomized24not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2021age 18 to 65, BMI 25 or more (30 or more in cohorts 7 and 8), no diabetes
NCT01272219safety56not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2011age 18 or more; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with hypertension or dyslipidemia; no diabetes; prediabetes allowed
NCT00500370safety28not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2007adults with BMI 30 or more, without diabetes
VENTUREsafety19not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2023age over 18; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; BMI 50 or less; no diabetes
NCT05616013safety104not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot statedopen_labelindustry2022adults 18 to 80; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; no diabetes (HbA1c below 6.5 percent); weight below 150 kg
NCT02075281safety26not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2014age 18 to 64 years; BMI 30 to 42, or 27 to 30 with comorbidity; FPG below 7 mmol/L; HbA1c 6.5 percent or less; no diabetes
STEP 10safety57not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2021Adults with obesity and prediabetes; diabetes excluded
NCT02160990randomized4.29not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindnon_industry2014Adults; BMI 30 to 40; accelerated gastric emptying; no diabetes
NCT03038620randomized40not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2017age 35 or more; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with metabolic syndrome; no diabetes
ACCESSsafety36not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2024age 18 to 79; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; HbA1c below 6.5 percent; weight above 80 kg; no diabetes
NCT01590433randomized52not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot statedsingle_blindmixed2012women 18 to 70 years, BMI 25 to 48, no diabetes
STEP 3safety75not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2018BMI 30 or more, or 27 with comorbidity; no type 2 diabetes
NCT03842202safety27not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2019age 18 to 65; BMI 30.0 to 45.0; HbA1c below 48 mmol/mol
NCT02647944randomized16not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindnot_reported2015adults with obesity
SURMOUNT-1safety193not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2019age 18 or older; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with a weight related complication; no diabetes
SURMOUNT-CNsafety56not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2021Chinese adults; BMI 28 or more, or 24 or more with a weight related comorbidity; no diabetes
NCT04478708safety29.43not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2020age 18 to 65; BMI 30 to 40; HbA1c at most 6.5 or fasting glucose below 125 mg/dL
NCT04904913safety36not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2021Chinese adults 18 to 75; BMI 28 or more, or 24 or more with comorbidity or hyperphagia; no diabetes, HbA1c below 6.5
Dapalostsafety24not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2014age 18 to 70; BMI 30 to 45 kg/m2; no diabetes
NCT00781937safety57not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2008BMI 30 or more or 27 with comorbidity; no diabetes; at least 5 percent loss on run in
STEP7safety51not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2020age 18 or older; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with a weight related comorbidity including T2D
STABLE Wt Lossrandomized60not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2022age 18 to 70; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; no diabetes; HbA1c 6.5 percent or less
NCT03101930safety14not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindmixed2017age 18 to 65; BMI >=30 kg/m2; prediabetes by ADA criteria; no diabetes
OASIS 1safety75not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2021overweight or obesity
NCT03856047safety26not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2019age 18 or older; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with hypertension or dyslipidemia; no diabetes
NCT05623839safety27not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2022age 18 to 70; BMI 27 to 50; HbA1c below 6.5 percent; no diabetes
STEP 8safety75not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2019age 18 or older; BMI 30 or higher, or 27 with a weight related comorbidity; no type 2 diabetes
NCT04881760safety52not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry202118 to 75 years; BMI 30 or more, or 27 to less than 30 with weight related complication; no type 2 diabetes
STRIVEsafety104not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot statedopen_labelindustry2017age 18 to 75; BMI 35 or more plus prediabetes, T2D, hypertension or sleep apnea; no insulin or GLP-1 RA
ATTAIN-1safety74deaths in safety populationnot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2023adults BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with a weight related complication, without diabetes
TOGETHER-PsAsafety36not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot statedsingle_blindindustry2024age 18 to 80; active psoriatic arthritis; BMI 30 or more, or 27 to 30 with a weight related comorbidity
DREAMrandomized16not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2023age 18 to 75; BMI 30 or more; no diabetes, HbA1c below 48 mmol/mol
STEP 6safety75not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2019
SURMOUNT-3safety76not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2021age 18 or older; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; no diabetes; at least 5 percent loss in lead in
NCT00546728safety13.04not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot statedopen_labelindustry2007no diabetes; waist 102 cm men or 88 cm women or more; IFG, HbA1c 5.7 percent or more, or IGT
NCT06250946safety36not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2024age 18 to 65; BMI 28 to 40; no diabetes, HbA1c below 6.5 percent
NCT01557166safety34participants with serious treatment emergent adverse eventsnot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2012age 18 to 64; BMI 30 or more; AHI 15 or more; no diabetes; unable or unwilling to use CPAP
NCT02453711safety59not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2015BMI 30 or more without diabetes
NCT05051579safety38not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2021adults BMI 30 or more, or 27 to 30 with a weight related complication, without diabetes
NCT06569355safety18not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2023age 18 to 75; BMI 28 or more, or 24 to 28 with comorbidity; no diabetes
FALCONsafety16not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2025age 18 to 75; BMI 27 to below 50 with comorbidity if below 30; HbA1c below 6.5
NCT06256562safety33not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2023age 18 to 75; BMI 24 to <28 kg/m2 with comorbidity or 28 or more (Chinese criteria); no diabetes
S003017safety52.14not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2019age 20 to 65; BMI above 35; 12 to 36 months after bariatric surgery with suboptimal stable weight loss or regain
S003032completers52.14not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot statedopen_labelnon_industryage 18 to 65; BMI 27 or higher; scheduled for intragastric balloon
NCT04855292safety14not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2021age 18 to 75; BMI 26 or more; weight 60 kg or more; HbA1c below 6.5; no diabetes
S003067randomized52not statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2007age 18 to 65; BMI 30 to 40; FPG below 7 mmol/L; no diabetes

Trial data

What each trial contributes. Arm rows give the arm value with its standard error, or events over participants; contrast rows give the hazard ratio (from event counts) on the analysis scale (log) against the trial's first row. Flags mark converted, combined or approximated inputs.
Trial data entering this analysis
TrialArmTreatmentWeekDataValueSEEvents / NFlagsSource
TOGETHER-PsOA1STANDARD_CARE36arm, events8 / 134printed_denominatorR0014237:Table 3
TOGETHER-PsOA2TIRZ_SC36arm, events5 / 138printed_denominatorR0014237:Table 3
NCT04081337A1PLACEBO22arm, events0 / 28R0004227:Supplement Table S1
NCT04081337A2TIRZ_SC22arm, events1 / 27R0004227:Supplement Table S1
SURMOUNT-5A1TIRZ_SC72arm, events18 / 375registry:adverse_events
SURMOUNT-5A2SEMA_SC72arm, events13 / 376registry:adverse_events
NCT02717858A1LIRA_SC16.1arm, events0 / 26R0024932:Results
NCT02717858A2PLACEBO16.1arm, events1 / 26R0024932:Results
NCT05268627A1OTHER_ACTIVE_botulinum_toxin16arm, events0 / 20R0006920:Results
NCT05268627A2LIRA_SC16arm, events0 / 20R0006920:Results
NCT01784965A1LIRA_SC14arm, events8 / 35registry:adverse_events
NCT01784965A2PLACEBO14arm, events0 / 33registry:adverse_events
STEP 1A1SEMA_SC75arm, events128 / 1,306R0023399:Table 3
STEP 1A2PLACEBO75arm, events42 / 655R0023399:Table 3
NCT03523273A1PLACEBO18arm, events1 / 69registry:adverse_events
NCT03523273A2LIRA_SC18arm, events1 / 67registry:adverse_events
STEP 5A1SEMA_SC111arm, events12 / 152R0021896:Table 3
STEP 5A2PLACEBO111arm, events18 / 152R0021896:Table 3
NCT05786521A1SEMA_SC20arm, events0 / 10registry:adverse_events
NCT05786521A2STANDARD_CARE20arm, events0 / 10registry:adverse_events
NCT04707313A11+A12+A13DANU_PO37arm, events7 / 110arms_combinedR0005921:Table 2
NCT04707313A2PLACEBO37arm, events0 / 19R0005921:Table 2
NCT04311411A1PLACEBO10arm, events0 / 39registry:adverse_events
NCT04311411A2LIRA_SC10arm, events1 / 38R0012789:Results
NCT04311411A3TIRZ_SC10arm, events0 / 37registry:adverse_events
NCT03041792A1LIRA_SC10.43arm, events0 / 32R0023522:Table 2
NCT03041792A2PLACEBO10.43arm, events0 / 29R0023522:Table 2
NCT05579977A1+A8PLACEBO28arm, events2 / 139arms_combinedR0004106:Supplement Table S3
NCT05579977A10+A11+A12+A13+A2+A3+A4+A5+A6+A9LOTI_PO28arm, events18 / 690arms_combinedR0004106:Supplement Table S3
NCT05579977A7SEMA_PO28arm, events1 / 73R0004106:Supplement Table S3
BARIOPTIMISEA1PLACEBO28arm, events0 / 35R0017334:Table 3
BARIOPTIMISEA2LIRA_SC28arm, events0 / 35R0017334:Table 3
NCT01272219A1LIRA_SC56arm, events154 / 2,487R0026209:Table 6
NCT01272219A2PLACEBO56arm, events62 / 1,244R0026209:Table 6
NCT00500370A1EXEN_SC28arm, events0 / 80registry:adverse_events
NCT00500370A2PLACEBO28arm, events0 / 83registry:adverse_events
VENTUREA1PLACEBO19arm, events1 / 35R0011224:Table 3
VENTUREA2+A3+A4+A5VK2735_SC19arm, events7 / 141arms_combinedR0011224:Table 3
NCT05616013A3OTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumab104arm, events8 / 57registry:adverse_events
NCT05616013A4+A5SEMA_SC104arm, events12 / 113arms_combinedregistry:adverse_events
NCT05616013A6+A7+A8+A9BIMASEMA_SC104arm, events28 / 225arms_combinedregistry:adverse_events
NCT02075281A1PLACEBO26arm, events0 / 60R0011218:Table 3
NCT02075281A2+A3+A4+A5EFPE_SC26arm, events6 / 237arms_combinedR0011218:Table 3
STEP 10A1SEMA_SC57arm, events12 / 138registry:adverse_events
STEP 10A2PLACEBO57arm, events6 / 69registry:adverse_events
NCT02160990A1PLACEBO4.29arm, events0 / 10R0020690:Results
NCT02160990A2EXEN_SC4.29arm, events0 / 10R0020690:Results
NCT03038620A1LIRA_SC40arm, events0 / 92registry:adverse_events
NCT03038620A2PLACEBO40arm, events0 / 93registry:adverse_events
ACCESSA1+A2+A3ALENIG_PO36arm, events5 / 174arms_combinedR0000892:Table 2
ACCESSA4PLACEBO36arm, events3 / 56R0000892:Table 2
NCT01590433A1EXEN_SC52arm, events0 / 127registry:adverse_events
NCT01590433A2PLACEBO52arm, events0 / 55registry:adverse_events
STEP 3A1SEMA_SC75arm, events37 / 407registry:adverse_events
STEP 3A2PLACEBO75arm, events6 / 204registry:adverse_events
NCT03842202A1SEMA_SC27arm, events1 / 36R0023297:Supplement Table S3
NCT03842202A2PLACEBO27arm, events1 / 36R0023297:Supplement Table S3
NCT02647944A1LIRA_SC16arm, events0 / 19registry:adverse_events
NCT02647944A2PLACEBO16arm, events0 / 21registry:adverse_events
SURMOUNT-1A1PLACEBO193arm, events53 / 643registry:adverse_events
SURMOUNT-1A2+A3+A4TIRZ_SC193arm, events167 / 1,896arms_combinedregistry:adverse_events
SURMOUNT-CNA1+A2TIRZ_SC56arm, events11 / 141arms_combinedregistry:adverse_events
SURMOUNT-CNA3PLACEBO56arm, events6 / 69registry:adverse_events
NCT04478708A10+A11+A14+A9MARI_SC29.43arm, events0 / 30printed_denominator;arms_combinedR0006305:Results
NCT04478708A15+A8PLACEBO29.43arm, events0 / 9printed_denominator;arms_combinedregistry:adverse_events
NCT04904913A1+A2+A3MAZD_SC36arm, events9 / 186arms_combinedR0016107:Table 4
NCT04904913A4PLACEBO36arm, events0 / 62R0016107:Table 4
DapalostA1EXENER_SC24arm, events1 / 25R0025627:Table 3
DapalostA2PLACEBO24arm, events1 / 25R0025627:Table 3
NCT00781937A1LIRA_SC57arm, events9 / 212registry:adverse_events
NCT00781937A2PLACEBO57arm, events5 / 210registry:adverse_events
STEP7A1SEMA_SC51arm, events14 / 249registry:adverse_events
STEP7A2PLACEBO51arm, events8 / 126registry:adverse_events
STABLE Wt LossA1SEMA_SC60arm, events3 / 72R0013679:Table 4
STABLE Wt LossA2PLACEBO60arm, events0 / 48R0013679:Table 4
NCT03101930A1LIRA_SC14arm, events0 / 46registry:adverse_events
NCT03101930A2SITAGLIPTIN14arm, events1 / 23registry:adverse_events
NCT03101930A3LIFESTYLE14arm, events1 / 24registry:adverse_events
OASIS 1A1SEMA_PO75arm, events32 / 334registry:adverse_events
OASIS 1A2PLACEBO75arm, events29 / 333registry:adverse_events
NCT03856047A1+A2+A3+A4+A5OTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintide26arm, events22 / 506arms_combinedR0017871:Table 3
NCT03856047A6LIRA_SC26arm, events4 / 99R0017871:Table 3
NCT03856047A7PLACEBO26arm, events3 / 101R0017871:Table 3
NCT05623839A1PLACEBO27arm, events0 / 8R0013210:Results
NCT05623839A2+A3MAZD_SC27arm, events0 / 24arms_combinedR0013210:Results
STEP 8A1SEMA_SC75arm, events10 / 126registry:adverse_events
STEP 8A2LIRA_SC75arm, events14 / 127registry:adverse_events
STEP 8A3PLACEBO75arm, events6 / 85registry:adverse_events
NCT04881760A1PLACEBO52arm, events3 / 70registry:adverse_events
NCT04881760A2+A3+A4+A5+A6+A7RETA_SC52arm, events10 / 268arms_combinedregistry:adverse_events
STRIVEA1STANDARD_CARE104arm, events11 / 132R0020855:Table 4
STRIVEA2LIRA_SC104arm, events33 / 260R0020855:Table 4
ATTAIN-1A1PLACEBO74arm, events46 / 949registry:adverse_events
ATTAIN-1A2+A3+A4ORFO_PO74arm, events107 / 2,178arms_combinedregistry:adverse_events
TOGETHER-PsAA1STANDARD_CARE36arm, events10 / 132printed_denominatorR0018951:Table 3
TOGETHER-PsAA2TIRZ_SC36arm, events5 / 138printed_denominatorR0018951:Table 3
DREAMA1PLACEBO16arm, events0 / 18R0011013:Table 3
DREAMA2+A3DAPIGL_SC16arm, events1 / 36arms_combinedR0011013:Table 3
STEP 6A1+A2SEMA_SC75arm, events17 / 300arms_combinedregistry:adverse_events
STEP 6A3PLACEBO75arm, events7 / 101registry:adverse_events
SURMOUNT-3A1TIRZ_SC76arm, events17 / 287R0007405:Table 3
SURMOUNT-3A2PLACEBO76arm, events14 / 292R0007405:Table 3
NCT00546728A1METFORMIN13.04arm, events0 / 25registry:adverse_events
NCT00546728A2EXEN_SC13.04arm, events0 / 25registry:adverse_events
NCT06250946A1PLACEBO36arm, events1 / 46R0001289:Table 6
NCT06250946A2+A3+A4+A5HRS7535_PO36arm, events6 / 189arms_combinedR0001289:Table 6
NCT01557166A1LIRA_SC34arm, events6 / 180R0026203:Table 2
NCT01557166A2PLACEBO34arm, events6 / 179R0026203:Table 2
NCT02453711A1+A2+A3+A4+A5+A6+A7SEMA_SC59arm, events58 / 718arms_combinedregistry:adverse_events
NCT02453711A8LIRA_SC59arm, events4 / 103registry:adverse_events
NCT02453711A9PLACEBO59arm, events11 / 136registry:adverse_events
NCT05051579A1+A2+A3+A4+A5+A6ORFO_PO38arm, events7 / 222arms_combinedregistry:adverse_events
NCT05051579A7PLACEBO38arm, events0 / 50registry:adverse_events
NCT06569355A1+A2+A3+A4VCT220_PO18arm, events3 / 189arms_combinedR0001121:Table 3
NCT06569355A5PLACEBO18arm, events0 / 61R0001121:Table 3
FALCONA1PLACEBO16arm, events0 / 33R0004304:Table 3
FALCONA2+A3+A4+A5TERN60_PO16arm, events3 / 134arms_combinedR0004304:Table 3
NCT06256562A1+A2+A3+A4+A5BOFANG_SC33arm, events8 / 274arms_combinedR0002409:Table 3
NCT06256562A6PLACEBO33arm, events1 / 66R0002409:Table 3
NCT04838405A1PLACEBO24arm, events0 / 10R0007991:Table 2
NCT04838405A2+A3+A4+A5+A6CT388_SC24arm, events2 / 30arms_combinedR0007991:Table 2
S003017A1LIRA_SC52.14arm, events0 / 24R0016758:Discussion
S003017A2PLACEBO52.14arm, events0 / 24R0016758:Discussion
S003032A1STANDARD_CARE52.14arm, events0 / 25R0015729:Table 2
S003032A2SEMA_SC52.14arm, events0 / 25R0015729:Table 2
NCT04855292A1+A2+A3TG103_SC14arm, events0 / 36arms_combinedR0022276:Results
NCT04855292A4PLACEBO14arm, events0 / 12R0022276:Results
S003067A1PLACEBO52arm, events3 / 98R0025439:Table 2
S003067A2+A3+A4+A5LIRA_SC52arm, events20 / 371arms_combinedR0025439:Table 2
S003067A6ORLISTAT52arm, events2 / 95R0025439:Table 2

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