Network meta-analysis
Discontinuation due to adverse events
Overweight or obesity without diabetes (adults)
longest follow-upRecorded harmsDoses of a drug pooledHazard ratio (from event counts)
25
Randomized trials
23
Treatments
10,083
Participants
692
Events
In plain language
Across 25 trials with 10,083 participants, 0 of 22 treatments had a clearly better result than placebo on discontinuation due to adverse events, 7 a clearly worse one, and for 15 the evidence could not tell them apart from placebo. The most favorable estimate was for Mari sc: hazard ratio (from event counts) 0.44 (95% credible interval 0.01 to 31.24).
Lower values favor the treatment. "Clearly" means the 95% credible interval excludes no difference. These are averages across trials; they do not say how any one person will respond. Not medical advice.
Network of trials
Each circle is a treatment; each line joins treatments that were randomized against each other in at least one trial.
Effects compared with Placebo
Hazard ratio (from event counts). Lower values favor the treatment.
| Treatment | Bayesian HR (95% CrI) | 95% prediction interval | Frequentist HR (95% CI) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mari sc MARI_SC | 0.44 (0.01 to 31.24) | 0.01 to 31.02 | Unclear | |
| Tg103 sc TG103_SC | 0.46 (0.00 to 35.65) | 0.00 to 36.70 | Unclear | |
| Ct388 sc CT388_SC | 0.50 (0.01 to 35.58) | 0.01 to 38.44 | Unclear | |
| Exenatide injection EXEN_SC | 0.59 (0.01 to 43.64) | 0.01 to 45.48 | Unclear | |
| Exenatide extended release injection EXENER_SC | 0.66 (0.09 to 3.89) | 0.08 to 4.31 | Unclear | |
| Vct220 po VCT220_PO | 0.99 (0.14 to 11.88) | 0.12 to 12.73 | Unclear | |
| Cagrilintide OTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintide | 1.65 (0.50 to 6.59) | 0.43 to 7.43 | Unclear | |
| Semaglutide tablet SEMA_PO | 1.69 (0.43 to 6.55) | 0.38 to 7.28 | Unclear | |
| Semaglutide injection SEMA_SC | 1.90 (1.01 to 3.29) | 0.76 to 4.24 | Worse | |
| Standard care or no added treatment STANDARD_CARE | 1.96 (0.63 to 5.79) | 0.52 to 6.69 | Unclear | |
| Alenig po ALENIG_PO | 2.00 (0.59 to 8.48) | 0.52 to 9.50 | Unclear | |
| Efpe sc EFPE_SC | 2.10 (0.69 to 7.50) | 0.59 to 8.67 | Unclear | |
| Bimasema sc BIMASEMA_SC | 2.44 (0.87 to 6.83) | 0.70 to 7.91 | Unclear | |
| Tirzepatide injection TIRZ_SC | 2.86 (1.59 to 5.32) | 1.22 to 7.11 | Worse | |
| Mazdutide injection MAZD_SC | 3.25 (0.38 to 54.15) | 0.35 to 58.54 | Unclear | |
| Liraglutide injection LIRA_SC | 3.43 (1.08 to 13.45) | 0.90 to 15.64 | Worse | |
| Tern60 po TERN60_PO | 3.80 (0.78 to 35.38) | 0.69 to 38.99 | Unclear | |
| HRS-7535 tablet HRS7535_PO | 4.15 (0.40 to 112) | 0.37 to 122 | Unclear | |
| Bimagrumab OTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumab | 5.39 (1.95 to 14.99) | 1.59 to 17.44 | Worse | |
| Loti po LOTI_PO | 5.82 (2.14 to 16.78) | 1.76 to 19.79 | Worse | |
| Vk2735 sc VK2735_SC | 11.44 (1.39 to 259) | 1.28 to 285 | Worse | |
| Danuglipron tablet DANU_PO | 22.12 (3.15 to 384) | 2.72 to 415 | Worse |
Ranking
How likely each treatment is to be among the best. Rankings ignore the size of differences and their certainty, so read them with the effects above.
League table
Every treatment against every other: hazard ratio (from event counts) of the row treatment versus the column treatment, posterior median and 95% credible interval. Green: row clearly better; red: row clearly worse.
| Row versus column | PLACEBO | MARI_SC | TG103_SC | CT388_SC | EXEN_SC | EXENER_SC | VCT220_PO | OTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintide | SEMA_PO | SEMA_SC | STANDARD_CARE | ALENIG_PO | EFPE_SC | BIMASEMA_SC | TIRZ_SC | MAZD_SC | LIRA_SC | TERN60_PO | HRS7535_PO | OTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumab | LOTI_PO | VK2735_SC | DANU_PO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLACEBO | PLACEBO | 2.25 0.03 to 189 | 2.20 0.03 to 210 | 2.00 0.03 to 176 | 1.69 0.02 to 176 | 1.52 0.26 to 11.23 | 1.02 0.08 to 7.37 | 0.60 0.15 to 1.99 | 0.59 0.15 to 2.32 | 0.53 0.30 to 0.99 | 0.51 0.17 to 1.58 | 0.50 0.12 to 1.69 | 0.48 0.13 to 1.46 | 0.41 0.15 to 1.15 | 0.35 0.19 to 0.63 | 0.31 0.02 to 2.63 | 0.29 0.07 to 0.93 | 0.26 0.03 to 1.28 | 0.24 0.01 to 2.51 | 0.19 0.07 to 0.51 | 0.17 0.06 to 0.47 | 0.09 0.00 to 0.72 | 0.05 0.00 to 0.32 |
| MARI_SC | 0.44 0.01 to 31.24 | MARI_SC | 0.99 0.00 to 493 | 0.87 0.00 to 491 | 0.75 0.00 to 369 | 0.67 0.01 to 72.71 | 0.40 0.00 to 50.39 | 0.26 0.00 to 22.18 | 0.26 0.00 to 22.29 | 0.23 0.00 to 16.44 | 0.23 0.00 to 17.76 | 0.21 0.00 to 18.11 | 0.21 0.00 to 17.13 | 0.18 0.00 to 13.14 | 0.15 0.00 to 10.92 | 0.12 0.00 to 17.59 | 0.13 0.00 to 10.44 | 0.11 0.00 to 11.23 | 0.09 0.00 to 15.59 | 0.08 0.00 to 6.64 | 0.08 0.00 to 5.61 | 0.03 0.00 to 4.74 | 0.02 0.00 to 2.43 |
| TG103_SC | 0.46 0.00 to 35.65 | 1.01 0.00 to 466 | TG103_SC | 0.91 0.00 to 443 | 0.72 0.00 to 400 | 0.68 0.00 to 77.06 | 0.42 0.00 to 50.89 | 0.27 0.00 to 24.87 | 0.25 0.00 to 27.05 | 0.24 0.00 to 19.18 | 0.23 0.00 to 21.13 | 0.22 0.00 to 19.81 | 0.21 0.00 to 19.29 | 0.18 0.00 to 16.28 | 0.16 0.00 to 12.71 | 0.12 0.00 to 18.88 | 0.13 0.00 to 12.05 | 0.11 0.00 to 13.29 | 0.09 0.00 to 15.42 | 0.08 0.00 to 7.17 | 0.08 0.00 to 6.88 | 0.03 0.00 to 4.38 | 0.02 0.00 to 2.62 |
| CT388_SC | 0.50 0.01 to 35.58 | 1.14 0.00 to 532 | 1.10 0.00 to 651 | CT388_SC | 0.80 0.00 to 519 | 0.75 0.01 to 83.41 | 0.47 0.00 to 50.48 | 0.29 0.00 to 25.97 | 0.29 0.00 to 25.23 | 0.26 0.00 to 19.34 | 0.26 0.00 to 21.49 | 0.24 0.00 to 21.75 | 0.23 0.00 to 18.74 | 0.20 0.00 to 15.56 | 0.17 0.00 to 12.54 | 0.14 0.00 to 18.49 | 0.14 0.00 to 12.60 | 0.12 0.00 to 13.93 | 0.11 0.00 to 16.48 | 0.09 0.00 to 6.91 | 0.08 0.00 to 7.12 | 0.04 0.00 to 5.48 | 0.02 0.00 to 2.62 |
| EXEN_SC | 0.59 0.01 to 43.64 | 1.33 0.00 to 675 | 1.38 0.00 to 685 | 1.24 0.00 to 581 | EXEN_SC | 0.93 0.01 to 106 | 0.57 0.00 to 68.49 | 0.35 0.00 to 32.06 | 0.36 0.00 to 30.27 | 0.31 0.00 to 24.33 | 0.30 0.00 to 26.34 | 0.28 0.00 to 27.50 | 0.28 0.00 to 24.06 | 0.24 0.00 to 21.10 | 0.21 0.00 to 16.79 | 0.17 0.00 to 23.03 | 0.17 0.00 to 15.24 | 0.15 0.00 to 17.23 | 0.13 0.00 to 19.40 | 0.11 0.00 to 9.71 | 0.10 0.00 to 9.01 | 0.05 0.00 to 6.55 | 0.02 0.00 to 3.39 |
| EXENER_SC | 0.66 0.09 to 3.89 | 1.49 0.01 to 156 | 1.47 0.01 to 201 | 1.33 0.01 to 159 | 1.08 0.01 to 151 | EXENER_SC | 0.63 0.03 to 9.92 | 0.38 0.04 to 3.43 | 0.39 0.03 to 3.79 | 0.34 0.04 to 2.33 | 0.33 0.04 to 2.89 | 0.32 0.03 to 2.97 | 0.31 0.03 to 2.55 | 0.26 0.03 to 2.11 | 0.23 0.03 to 1.50 | 0.19 0.01 to 3.53 | 0.19 0.02 to 1.71 | 0.16 0.01 to 1.93 | 0.15 0.00 to 3.03 | 0.12 0.01 to 0.97 | 0.11 0.01 to 0.87 | 0.05 0.00 to 0.97 | 0.03 0.00 to 0.45 |
| VCT220_PO | 0.99 0.14 to 11.88 | 2.49 0.02 to 369 | 2.36 0.02 to 393 | 2.14 0.02 to 318 | 1.77 0.01 to 287 | 1.58 0.10 to 35.97 | VCT220_PO | 0.61 0.05 to 9.55 | 0.60 0.05 to 9.79 | 0.52 0.07 to 6.84 | 0.52 0.05 to 7.93 | 0.50 0.04 to 7.25 | 0.47 0.05 to 7.14 | 0.41 0.04 to 5.92 | 0.35 0.04 to 4.55 | 0.30 0.01 to 7.92 | 0.29 0.03 to 4.60 | 0.26 0.01 to 4.60 | 0.23 0.01 to 7.23 | 0.18 0.02 to 2.69 | 0.17 0.02 to 2.52 | 0.08 0.00 to 2.30 | 0.05 0.00 to 1.02 |
| OTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintide | 1.65 0.50 to 6.59 | 3.80 0.05 to 381 | 3.74 0.04 to 468 | 3.49 0.04 to 345 | 2.86 0.03 to 308 | 2.60 0.29 to 28.45 | 1.63 0.10 to 18.55 | OTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintide | 0.98 0.17 to 6.58 | 0.87 0.24 to 3.99 | 0.86 0.17 to 5.24 | 0.81 0.13 to 5.37 | 0.79 0.14 to 5.00 | 0.68 0.14 to 3.94 | 0.57 0.15 to 2.59 | 0.51 0.02 to 6.30 | 0.48 0.18 to 1.30 | 0.42 0.03 to 3.57 | 0.39 0.01 to 6.18 | 0.31 0.06 to 1.71 | 0.28 0.06 to 1.55 | 0.14 0.01 to 1.89 | 0.07 0.00 to 0.84 |
| SEMA_PO | 1.69 0.43 to 6.55 | 3.88 0.04 to 373 | 3.93 0.04 to 382 | 3.47 0.04 to 351 | 2.79 0.03 to 342 | 2.59 0.26 to 28.58 | 1.66 0.10 to 19.26 | 1.02 0.15 to 5.85 | SEMA_PO | 0.89 0.21 to 3.79 | 0.86 0.16 to 4.83 | 0.83 0.12 to 5.56 | 0.80 0.13 to 4.47 | 0.69 0.13 to 3.71 | 0.58 0.14 to 2.58 | 0.51 0.02 to 6.41 | 0.49 0.07 to 2.90 | 0.43 0.03 to 3.65 | 0.40 0.01 to 6.10 | 0.31 0.06 to 1.66 | 0.30 0.09 to 0.82 | 0.14 0.00 to 1.83 | 0.07 0.00 to 0.90 |
| SEMA_SC | 1.90 1.01 to 3.29 | 4.36 0.06 to 373 | 4.13 0.05 to 416 | 3.83 0.05 to 355 | 3.20 0.04 to 346 | 2.90 0.43 to 22.63 | 1.92 0.15 to 15.04 | 1.15 0.25 to 4.24 | 1.13 0.26 to 4.70 | SEMA_SC | 0.97 0.29 to 3.45 | 0.94 0.20 to 3.66 | 0.90 0.22 to 3.05 | 0.77 0.28 to 1.96 | 0.66 0.27 to 1.44 | 0.58 0.03 to 5.23 | 0.56 0.12 to 1.95 | 0.50 0.05 to 2.62 | 0.45 0.02 to 5.03 | 0.35 0.13 to 0.91 | 0.33 0.10 to 0.99 | 0.17 0.01 to 1.44 | 0.09 0.00 to 0.67 |
| STANDARD_CARE | 1.96 0.63 to 5.79 | 4.37 0.06 to 404 | 4.39 0.05 to 461 | 3.92 0.05 to 381 | 3.29 0.04 to 387 | 3.01 0.35 to 28.21 | 1.93 0.13 to 18.98 | 1.17 0.19 to 5.93 | 1.16 0.21 to 6.38 | 1.03 0.29 to 3.47 | STANDARD_CARE | 0.96 0.16 to 4.91 | 0.92 0.16 to 4.41 | 0.79 0.17 to 3.49 | 0.68 0.24 to 1.73 | 0.59 0.03 to 6.69 | 0.56 0.09 to 2.77 | 0.50 0.04 to 3.45 | 0.46 0.01 to 6.20 | 0.36 0.08 to 1.59 | 0.33 0.07 to 1.45 | 0.17 0.01 to 1.78 | 0.08 0.00 to 0.84 |
| ALENIG_PO | 2.00 0.59 to 8.48 | 4.75 0.06 to 448 | 4.54 0.05 to 491 | 4.23 0.05 to 441 | 3.54 0.04 to 418 | 3.17 0.34 to 34.87 | 2.01 0.14 to 23.20 | 1.24 0.19 to 7.93 | 1.20 0.18 to 8.01 | 1.06 0.27 to 5.13 | 1.04 0.20 to 6.38 | ALENIG_PO | 0.96 0.16 to 5.94 | 0.83 0.17 to 4.96 | 0.70 0.18 to 3.18 | 0.63 0.03 to 8.31 | 0.60 0.09 to 3.77 | 0.52 0.04 to 4.75 | 0.48 0.01 to 7.66 | 0.37 0.07 to 2.22 | 0.35 0.07 to 2.00 | 0.17 0.01 to 2.36 | 0.09 0.00 to 1.09 |
| EFPE_SC | 2.10 0.69 to 7.50 | 4.86 0.06 to 480 | 4.87 0.05 to 498 | 4.44 0.05 to 455 | 3.57 0.04 to 436 | 3.24 0.39 to 34.58 | 2.12 0.14 to 22.21 | 1.27 0.20 to 7.25 | 1.26 0.22 to 7.74 | 1.11 0.33 to 4.55 | 1.08 0.23 to 6.08 | 1.04 0.17 to 6.20 | EFPE_SC | 0.85 0.19 to 4.54 | 0.73 0.20 to 3.03 | 0.66 0.03 to 7.64 | 0.62 0.10 to 3.41 | 0.54 0.05 to 4.31 | 0.51 0.02 to 7.47 | 0.39 0.09 to 2.00 | 0.37 0.08 to 1.84 | 0.18 0.01 to 2.15 | 0.09 0.00 to 1.08 |
| BIMASEMA_SC | 2.44 0.87 to 6.83 | 5.59 0.08 to 534 | 5.45 0.06 to 597 | 5.11 0.06 to 483 | 4.20 0.05 to 467 | 3.78 0.47 to 34.74 | 2.45 0.17 to 23.58 | 1.47 0.25 to 7.31 | 1.46 0.27 to 7.83 | 1.29 0.51 to 3.52 | 1.26 0.29 to 5.73 | 1.21 0.20 to 5.99 | 1.18 0.22 to 5.19 | BIMASEMA_SC | 0.86 0.25 to 2.83 | 0.74 0.04 to 8.08 | 0.71 0.13 to 3.46 | 0.63 0.05 to 4.47 | 0.58 0.02 to 8.18 | 0.45 0.19 to 1.09 | 0.42 0.09 to 1.72 | 0.21 0.01 to 2.26 | 0.11 0.01 to 1.04 |
| TIRZ_SC | 2.86 1.59 to 5.32 | 6.49 0.09 to 559 | 6.27 0.08 to 622 | 5.77 0.08 to 524 | 4.82 0.06 to 533 | 4.38 0.67 to 36.27 | 2.88 0.22 to 23.25 | 1.75 0.39 to 6.60 | 1.71 0.39 to 7.40 | 1.52 0.69 to 3.68 | 1.47 0.58 to 4.10 | 1.43 0.31 to 5.65 | 1.36 0.33 to 5.03 | 1.17 0.35 to 3.97 | TIRZ_SC | 0.90 0.05 to 8.73 | 0.84 0.18 to 3.16 | 0.75 0.08 to 4.24 | 0.69 0.03 to 8.00 | 0.54 0.16 to 1.78 | 0.49 0.15 to 1.57 | 0.25 0.01 to 2.25 | 0.13 0.01 to 1.05 |
| MAZD_SC | 3.25 0.38 to 54.15 | 8.04 0.06 to 1392 | 8.05 0.05 to 1450 | 6.93 0.05 to 1401 | 5.84 0.04 to 1279 | 5.28 0.28 to 143 | 3.29 0.13 to 109 | 1.97 0.16 to 40.72 | 1.96 0.16 to 42.34 | 1.72 0.19 to 30.44 | 1.68 0.15 to 34.75 | 1.58 0.12 to 35.54 | 1.51 0.13 to 32.29 | 1.34 0.12 to 26.13 | 1.12 0.11 to 20.96 | MAZD_SC | 0.95 0.08 to 19.91 | 0.83 0.04 to 22.04 | 0.74 0.02 to 28.83 | 0.62 0.06 to 12.02 | 0.57 0.05 to 11.19 | 0.27 0.01 to 8.92 | 0.14 0.00 to 5.04 |
| LIRA_SC | 3.43 1.08 to 13.45 | 7.75 0.10 to 833 | 7.75 0.08 to 915 | 7.33 0.08 to 713 | 5.95 0.07 to 651 | 5.28 0.59 to 59.78 | 3.47 0.22 to 39.21 | 2.07 0.77 to 5.54 | 2.05 0.35 to 13.73 | 1.80 0.51 to 8.32 | 1.79 0.36 to 10.53 | 1.68 0.27 to 10.75 | 1.61 0.29 to 9.76 | 1.41 0.29 to 7.72 | 1.19 0.32 to 5.51 | 1.06 0.05 to 12.41 | LIRA_SC | 0.89 0.07 to 7.64 | 0.81 0.03 to 12.14 | 0.64 0.14 to 3.46 | 0.59 0.12 to 3.25 | 0.29 0.01 to 3.82 | 0.15 0.01 to 1.80 |
| TERN60_PO | 3.80 0.78 to 35.38 | 9.36 0.09 to 1128 | 9.41 0.08 to 1307 | 8.25 0.07 to 1219 | 6.89 0.06 to 1021 | 6.14 0.52 to 106 | 3.87 0.22 to 72.48 | 2.36 0.28 to 29.91 | 2.30 0.27 to 30.16 | 2.01 0.38 to 20.03 | 2.00 0.29 to 22.51 | 1.93 0.21 to 23.62 | 1.85 0.23 to 22.20 | 1.57 0.22 to 19.21 | 1.34 0.24 to 12.78 | 1.21 0.05 to 25.52 | 1.12 0.13 to 14.12 | TERN60_PO | 0.92 0.03 to 22.78 | 0.72 0.11 to 8.18 | 0.66 0.10 to 7.64 | 0.34 0.01 to 7.03 | 0.17 0.01 to 3.43 |
| HRS7535_PO | 4.15 0.40 to 112 | 10.64 0.06 to 2498 | 10.97 0.06 to 2263 | 9.42 0.06 to 2176 | 7.51 0.05 to 1794 | 6.86 0.33 to 280 | 4.39 0.14 to 188 | 2.57 0.16 to 76.97 | 2.52 0.16 to 87.22 | 2.24 0.20 to 59.41 | 2.18 0.16 to 70.45 | 2.07 0.13 to 69.92 | 1.97 0.13 to 58.47 | 1.72 0.12 to 52.08 | 1.45 0.12 to 38.65 | 1.35 0.03 to 60.39 | 1.23 0.08 to 39.74 | 1.09 0.04 to 39.59 | HRS7535_PO | 0.78 0.06 to 23.87 | 0.72 0.06 to 21.23 | 0.36 0.01 to 18.77 | 0.19 0.00 to 9.32 |
| OTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumab | 5.39 1.95 to 14.99 | 12.38 0.15 to 1179 | 11.90 0.14 to 1250 | 11.13 0.14 to 1026 | 9.32 0.10 to 1051 | 8.22 1.03 to 72.86 | 5.41 0.37 to 49.26 | 3.26 0.58 to 15.69 | 3.21 0.60 to 16.64 | 2.83 1.10 to 7.55 | 2.77 0.63 to 12.64 | 2.67 0.45 to 13.39 | 2.57 0.50 to 11.07 | 2.20 0.92 to 5.15 | 1.87 0.56 to 6.10 | 1.62 0.08 to 17.40 | 1.55 0.29 to 7.23 | 1.38 0.12 to 9.50 | 1.28 0.04 to 16.92 | OTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumab | 0.92 0.21 to 3.70 | 0.46 0.02 to 4.82 | 0.24 0.01 to 2.28 |
| LOTI_PO | 5.82 2.14 to 16.78 | 13.14 0.18 to 1205 | 13.27 0.15 to 1344 | 12.23 0.14 to 1220 | 9.85 0.11 to 1108 | 8.96 1.15 to 83.98 | 5.90 0.40 to 55.57 | 3.52 0.64 to 16.81 | 3.38 1.23 to 11.29 | 3.07 1.01 to 10.15 | 3.00 0.69 to 14.00 | 2.87 0.50 to 14.82 | 2.73 0.54 to 13.01 | 2.36 0.58 to 10.79 | 2.03 0.64 to 6.87 | 1.75 0.09 to 20.17 | 1.69 0.31 to 8.13 | 1.52 0.13 to 10.52 | 1.39 0.05 to 17.94 | 1.09 0.27 to 4.70 | LOTI_PO | 0.50 0.02 to 5.42 | 0.26 0.01 to 2.59 |
| VK2735_SC | 11.44 1.39 to 259 | 30.04 0.21 to 6121 | 30.23 0.23 to 6415 | 26.07 0.18 to 6177 | 21.78 0.15 to 5181 | 18.82 1.03 to 719 | 12.06 0.43 to 469 | 7.09 0.53 to 198 | 7.07 0.55 to 227 | 6.02 0.70 to 155 | 6.05 0.56 to 162 | 5.85 0.42 to 170 | 5.47 0.47 to 157 | 4.73 0.44 to 137 | 4.01 0.44 to 102 | 3.66 0.11 to 153 | 3.44 0.26 to 97.14 | 2.98 0.14 to 108 | 2.80 0.05 to 147 | 2.17 0.21 to 60.61 | 2.01 0.18 to 55.23 | VK2735_SC | 0.52 0.02 to 20.49 |
| DANU_PO | 22.12 3.15 to 384 | 55.38 0.41 to 9015 | 55.24 0.38 to 10443 | 50.73 0.38 to 8945 | 41.70 0.30 to 8235 | 35.82 2.23 to 965 | 22.14 0.98 to 785 | 13.68 1.19 to 299 | 13.72 1.11 to 325 | 11.75 1.49 to 212 | 11.80 1.19 to 248 | 11.10 0.91 to 233 | 10.81 0.93 to 215 | 9.35 0.96 to 181 | 7.71 0.95 to 141 | 7.14 0.20 to 254 | 6.50 0.56 to 139 | 5.77 0.29 to 156 | 5.36 0.11 to 229 | 4.18 0.44 to 80.15 | 3.86 0.39 to 78.37 | 1.92 0.05 to 63.65 | DANU_PO |
Heterogeneity, fit and convergence
Bayesian random effects (primary)
Inconsistency
Do trials comparing two treatments directly agree with the indirect evidence through other treatments?
No comparison here has both direct and indirect evidence, so inconsistency cannot be checked by node splitting.
Small study effects
A comparison adjusted funnel plot: each point is one trial comparison, centered on its own network estimate. Asymmetry can signal that small trials with unfavorable results are missing.
Fewer than ten trial comparisons, too few to judge funnel plot asymmetry.
Baseline characteristics of the trials
The baseline value of each effect modifier or prognostic factor that applies here, per trial: mean or percent over arms, weighted by the number randomized. A note under a value names a stand in (a median for a mean, 100 minus the male share, Asian subgroup rows, an all Asian site list); "not reported" means no source of the trial prints it.
| Trial | Sex (percent female) effect modifier, prognostic factor; 25 of 25 | Asian ancestry or region (percent Asian) effect modifier, prognostic factor; 21 of 25 |
|---|---|---|
| TOGETHER-PsO S000032 | 44.9 | 3.3 |
| STEP 1 S000144 | 74.07 | 13.33 |
| STEP 5 S000214 | 77.6 | 0.65 |
| NCT04707313 S000279 | 63.4 | 10.8 |
| NCT03041792 S000418 | 67.69 | 1.81 |
| NCT05579977 S000448 | 52.05 | 13.22 |
| VENTURE S000714 | 73.86 | 2.29 |
| NCT05616013 S000715 | 57.37 | 2.97 |
| NCT02075281 S000743 | 76.35 | 8.49 |
| NCT02160990 S000865 | 65 | not reported |
| ACCESS S000899 | 54.35 | 1.74 |
| SURMOUNT-1 S001077 | 67.75 | 10.87 |
| NCT04478708 S001178 | 33.33 | 1.52 |
| NCT04904913 S001183 | 52.03 | 100 |
| Dapalost S001235 | 61.25 | not reported |
| NCT03856047 S001532 | 61.75 | 13.03 |
| NCT05623839 S001559 | 50 | not reported |
| TOGETHER-PsA S001889 | 69.75 | 2.2 |
| SURMOUNT-3 S002157 | 62.9 | 0.7 |
| NCT06250946 S002275 | 48.49 | 100 region: all sites in Asia |
| NCT06569355 S002553 | 41.59 | 97.22 Asian subgroup rows |
| FALCON S002590 | 79.04 | 0.6 |
| NCT04838405 S002824 | 56.25 | 12.5 |
| S003032 S003032 | 67.5 | not reported |
| NCT04855292 S003063 | 37.5 | 100 region: all sites in Asia |
Comparability of the trials
Checked across designs (the set of treatments each trial compares) for eligibility, outcome definition and assessment, and the baseline factors above. Flags point to possible intransitivity; notes describe variation that is not tied to design.
- FlagBaseline, Sex: design means range from 33.3 (MARI_SC vs PLACEBO) to 79.0 (PLACEBO vs TERN60_PO) percent female; threshold 15
- FlagBaseline, Asian ancestry or region: design means range from 0.6 (PLACEBO vs TERN60_PO) to 100.0 (HRS7535_PO vs PLACEBO) percent Asian; threshold 30
- NoteOutcome assessment, analysis set: mixed: completers 1, randomized 3, safety 21
- NoteOutcome assessment, time point: selected time points span 4.29 to 111 weeks
- NoteOutcome assessment, intercurrent events (discontinuation): mixed: not stated 24, while_on_treatment 1
- NoteOutcome assessment, intercurrent events (rescue): mixed: not stated 24, treatment_policy 1
- NoteRisk of bias, blinding: mixed: double_blind 21, open_label 3, single_blind 1
- NoteRisk of bias, funding: mixed: industry 23, non_industry 2
- NoteData handling, input conversions: arms_combined 18, printed_denominator 6
| Trial | time weeks | analysis set | definition | instrument | adjudicated | proportion method | intercurrent events (discontinuation) | intercurrent events (rescue) | blinding | funding | start year | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOGETHER-PsO | 36 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | open_label | industry | 2024 | adults; moderate to severe plaque psoriasis; PASI 12 or more; BMI 30 or more, or 27 to 30 with comorbidity |
| STEP 1 | 68 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | while_on_treatment | treatment_policy | double_blind | industry | 2018 | adults; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with a weight related condition; no diabetes; HbA1c below 6.5 percent |
| STEP 5 | 111 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2018 | age 18 or older; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; no diabetes; HbA1c below 6.5 percent |
| NCT04707313 | 37 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2021 | age 18 to 75; BMI 30 or higher; no diabetes; stable weight |
| NCT03041792 | 10.43 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2017 | age 18 to 75; BMI 30 to 40; no diabetes; HbA1c below 6.5 percent |
| NCT05579977 | 28 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2022 | age 18 to 75; T2D cohort on metformin, HbA1c 7.0 to 10.0, BMI 23 or more; obesity cohort BMI 30 or more without diabetes |
| VENTURE | 19 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2023 | age over 18; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; BMI 50 or less; no diabetes |
| NCT05616013 | 48 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | open_label | industry | 2022 | adults 18 to 80; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; no diabetes (HbA1c below 6.5 percent); weight below 150 kg |
| NCT02075281 | 20 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2014 | age 18 to 64 years; BMI 30 to 42, or 27 to 30 with comorbidity; FPG below 7 mmol/L; HbA1c 6.5 percent or less; no diabetes |
| NCT02160990 | 4.29 | randomized | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | non_industry | 2014 | Adults; BMI 30 to 40; accelerated gastric emptying; no diabetes |
| ACCESS | 36 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2024 | age 18 to 79; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; HbA1c below 6.5 percent; weight above 80 kg; no diabetes |
| SURMOUNT-1 | 72 | randomized | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2019 | age 18 or older; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with a weight related complication; no diabetes |
| NCT04478708 | 29.43 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2020 | age 18 to 65; BMI 30 to 40; HbA1c at most 6.5 or fasting glucose below 125 mg/dL |
| NCT04904913 | 36 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2021 | Chinese adults 18 to 75; BMI 28 or more, or 24 or more with comorbidity or hyperphagia; no diabetes, HbA1c below 6.5 |
| Dapalost | 24 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2014 | age 18 to 70; BMI 30 to 45 kg/m2; no diabetes |
| NCT03856047 | 26 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2019 | age 18 or older; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with hypertension or dyslipidemia; no diabetes |
| NCT05623839 | 27 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2022 | age 18 to 70; BMI 27 to 50; HbA1c below 6.5 percent; no diabetes |
| TOGETHER-PsA | 36 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | single_blind | industry | 2024 | age 18 to 80; active psoriatic arthritis; BMI 30 or more, or 27 to 30 with a weight related comorbidity |
| SURMOUNT-3 | 72 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2021 | age 18 or older; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with comorbidity; no diabetes; at least 5 percent loss in lead in |
| NCT06250946 | 36 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2024 | age 18 to 65; BMI 28 to 40; no diabetes, HbA1c below 6.5 percent |
| NCT06569355 | 18 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2023 | age 18 to 75; BMI 28 or more, or 24 to 28 with comorbidity; no diabetes |
| FALCON | 16 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2025 | age 18 to 75; BMI 27 to below 50 with comorbidity if below 30; HbA1c below 6.5 |
| NCT04838405 | 6 | randomized | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2021 | age 18 to 65, BMI 25 or more (30 or more in cohorts 7 and 8), no diabetes |
| S003032 | 52.14 | completers | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | open_label | non_industry | age 18 to 65; BMI 27 or higher; scheduled for intragastric balloon | |
| NCT04855292 | 14 | safety | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | not stated | double_blind | industry | 2021 | age 18 to 75; BMI 26 or more; weight 60 kg or more; HbA1c below 6.5; no diabetes |
Trial data
What each trial contributes. Arm rows give the arm value with its standard error, or events over participants; contrast rows give the hazard ratio (from event counts) on the analysis scale (log) against the trial's first row. Flags mark converted, combined or approximated inputs.
| Trial | Arm | Treatment | Week | Data | Value | SE | Events / N | Flags | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOGETHER-PsO | A1 | STANDARD_CARE | 36 | arm, events | 2 / 134 | printed_denominator | R0014237:Table 3 | ||
| TOGETHER-PsO | A2 | TIRZ_SC | 36 | arm, events | 5 / 138 | printed_denominator | R0014237:Table 3 | ||
| STEP 1 | A1 | SEMA_SC | 68 | arm, events | 92 / 1,306 | R0023399:Table 3 | |||
| STEP 1 | A2 | PLACEBO | 68 | arm, events | 20 / 655 | R0023399:Table 3 | |||
| STEP 5 | A1 | SEMA_SC | 111 | arm, events | 9 / 152 | R0021896:Table 3 | |||
| STEP 5 | A2 | PLACEBO | 111 | arm, events | 7 / 152 | R0021896:Table 3 | |||
| NCT04707313 | A11+A12+A13 | DANU_PO | 37 | arm, events | 43 / 110 | arms_combined | R0005921:Table 2 | ||
| NCT04707313 | A2 | PLACEBO | 37 | arm, events | 0 / 19 | R0005921:Table 2 | |||
| NCT03041792 | A1 | LIRA_SC | 10.43 | arm, events | 4 / 32 | R0023522:Table 2 | |||
| NCT03041792 | A2 | PLACEBO | 10.43 | arm, events | 0 / 29 | R0023522:Table 2 | |||
| NCT05579977 | A1+A8 | PLACEBO | 28 | arm, events | 5 / 139 | arms_combined | R0004106:Supplement Table S3 | ||
| NCT05579977 | A10+A11+A12+A13+A2+A3+A4+A5+A6+A9 | LOTI_PO | 28 | arm, events | 138 / 690 | arms_combined | R0004106:Supplement Table S3 | ||
| NCT05579977 | A7 | SEMA_PO | 28 | arm, events | 5 / 73 | R0004106:Supplement Table S3 | |||
| VENTURE | A1 | PLACEBO | 19 | arm, events | 0 / 35 | R0011224:Table 3 | |||
| VENTURE | A2+A3+A4+A5 | VK2735_SC | 19 | arm, events | 16 / 141 | arms_combined | R0011224:Table 3 | ||
| NCT05616013 | A1 | PLACEBO | 48 | arm, events | 2 / 56 | R0015266:Table 3 | |||
| NCT05616013 | A2+A3 | OTHER_ACTIVE_bimagrumab | 48 | arm, events | 20 / 113 | arms_combined | R0015266:Table 3 | ||
| NCT05616013 | A4+A5 | SEMA_SC | 48 | arm, events | 7 / 113 | arms_combined | R0015266:Table 3 | ||
| NCT05616013 | A6+A7+A8+A9 | BIMASEMA_SC | 48 | arm, events | 19 / 225 | arms_combined | R0015266:Table 3 | ||
| NCT02075281 | A1 | PLACEBO | 20 | arm, events | 4 / 60 | R0011218:Table 3 | |||
| NCT02075281 | A2+A3+A4+A5 | EFPE_SC | 20 | arm, events | 31 / 237 | arms_combined | R0011218:Table 3 | ||
| NCT02160990 | A1 | PLACEBO | 4.29 | arm, events | 0 / 10 | R0020690:Results | |||
| NCT02160990 | A2 | EXEN_SC | 4.29 | arm, events | 0 / 10 | R0020690:Results | |||
| ACCESS | A1+A2+A3 | ALENIG_PO | 36 | arm, events | 18 / 174 | arms_combined | R0000892:Table 2 | ||
| ACCESS | A4 | PLACEBO | 36 | arm, events | 3 / 56 | R0000892:Table 2 | |||
| SURMOUNT-1 | A1 | PLACEBO | 72 | arm, events | 17 / 643 | R0018082:Figure 1 | |||
| SURMOUNT-1 | A6 | TIRZ_SC | 72 | arm, events | 111 / 1,896 | R0018082:Figure 1 | |||
| NCT04478708 | A10+A11+A9 | MARI_SC | 29.43 | arm, events | 0 / 20 | printed_denominator;arms_combined | R0006305:Results | ||
| NCT04478708 | A8 | PLACEBO | 29.43 | arm, events | 0 / 6 | printed_denominator | R0006305:Results | ||
| NCT04904913 | A1+A2+A3 | MAZD_SC | 36 | arm, events | 1 / 186 | arms_combined | R0016107:Table 4 | ||
| NCT04904913 | A4 | PLACEBO | 36 | arm, events | 0 / 62 | R0016107:Table 4 | |||
| Dapalost | A1 | EXENER_SC | 24 | arm, events | 2 / 25 | R0025627:Table 3 | |||
| Dapalost | A2 | PLACEBO | 24 | arm, events | 3 / 25 | R0025627:Table 3 | |||
| NCT03856047 | A1+A2+A3+A4+A5 | OTHER_ACTIVE_cagrilintide | 26 | arm, events | 19 / 506 | arms_combined | R0017871:Table 3 | ||
| NCT03856047 | A6 | LIRA_SC | 26 | arm, events | 7 / 99 | R0017871:Table 3 | |||
| NCT03856047 | A7 | PLACEBO | 26 | arm, events | 3 / 101 | R0017871:Table 3 | |||
| NCT05623839 | A1 | PLACEBO | 27 | arm, events | 0 / 8 | R0013210:Results | |||
| NCT05623839 | A2+A3 | MAZD_SC | 27 | arm, events | 3 / 24 | arms_combined | R0013210:Results | ||
| TOGETHER-PsA | A1 | STANDARD_CARE | 36 | arm, events | 7 / 132 | printed_denominator | R0018951:Table 3 | ||
| TOGETHER-PsA | A2 | TIRZ_SC | 36 | arm, events | 7 / 138 | printed_denominator | R0018951:Table 3 | ||
| SURMOUNT-3 | A1 | TIRZ_SC | 72 | arm, events | 30 / 287 | R0007405:Table 3 | |||
| SURMOUNT-3 | A2 | PLACEBO | 72 | arm, events | 6 / 292 | R0007405:Table 3 | |||
| NCT06250946 | A1 | PLACEBO | 36 | arm, events | 0 / 46 | R0001289:Table 6 | |||
| NCT06250946 | A2+A3+A4+A5 | HRS7535_PO | 36 | arm, events | 5 / 189 | arms_combined | R0001289:Table 6 | ||
| NCT06569355 | A1+A2+A3+A4 | VCT220_PO | 18 | arm, events | 3 / 189 | arms_combined | R0001121:Table 3 | ||
| NCT06569355 | A5 | PLACEBO | 18 | arm, events | 1 / 61 | R0001121:Table 3 | |||
| FALCON | A1 | PLACEBO | 16 | arm, events | 1 / 33 | R0004304:Supplement Table S8 | |||
| FALCON | A2+A3+A4+A5 | TERN60_PO | 16 | arm, events | 16 / 134 | arms_combined | R0004304:Supplement Table S8 | ||
| NCT04838405 | A10+A8+A9 | CT388_SC | 6 | arm, events | 0 / 18 | arms_combined | R0007991:Table 3 | ||
| NCT04838405 | A7 | PLACEBO | 6 | arm, events | 0 / 6 | R0007991:Table 3 | |||
| S003032 | A1 | STANDARD_CARE | 52.14 | arm, events | 0 / 25 | R0015729:Table 2 | |||
| S003032 | A2 | SEMA_SC | 52.14 | arm, events | 0 / 25 | R0015729:Table 2 | |||
| NCT04855292 | A1+A2+A3 | TG103_SC | 14 | arm, events | 0 / 36 | arms_combined | R0022276:Results | ||
| NCT04855292 | A4 | PLACEBO | 14 | arm, events | 0 / 12 | R0022276:Results |
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