LivingGLP1
Network meta-analysis

SF-36 physical component summary change

Overweight or obesity without diabetes (adults)

weeks 20 to 130 (target week 52)Treatment policyEach dose separatelyMean difference
2
Randomized trials
7
Treatments
2,101
Participants
8
Trial arms

In plain language

Across 2 trials with 2,101 participants, 0 of 6 treatments had a clearly better result than placebo on SF-36 physical component summary change, and for 6 the evidence could not tell them apart from placebo. The most favorable estimate was for Semaglutide 2.4 mg subcutaneous once weekly: mean difference 2.19 points (95% credible interval -5.09 to 9.80).

Higher values favor the treatment. "Clearly" means the 95% credible interval excludes no difference. These are averages across trials; they do not say how any one person will respond. Not medical advice.

Network of trials

Each circle is a treatment; each line joins treatments that were randomized against each other in at least one trial.
BOFANG_SC_12MG_Q2WBOFANG_SC_18MG_Q2WBOFANG_SC_24MG_Q2WBOFANG_SC_24MG_QWBOFANG_SC_48MG_Q2WPLACEBOSEMA_SC_2p4MG_QW
Node area shows participants; line width shows trials comparing two treatments directly. Blue: GLP-1 receptor agonist containing treatments; grey: comparators. Hover over or tab to a node or line for details.

Effects compared with Placebo

Mean difference in points. Higher values favor the treatment.
-10-50510← favors referencefavors treatment →Semaglutide 2.4 mg subcutaneous …Bofanglutide 18 mg injection eve…Bofanglutide 24 mg injection eve…Bofanglutide 12 mg injection eve…Bofanglutide 48 mg injection eve…Bofanglutide 24 mg injection onc…
Versus Placebo. Blue: Bayesian random effects posterior median with 95% credible interval (thick) and 95% prediction interval (dashed). Amber diamond: frequentist estimate with 95% confidence interval. Hover over or tab to a row for its values.
Effects of each treatment versus Placebo
TreatmentBayesian MD (95% CrI)95% prediction intervalFrequentist MD (95% CI)Verdict
Semaglutide 2.4 mg subcutaneous once weekly
SEMA_SC_2p4MG_QW
2.19 (-5.09 to 9.80)-8.50 to 13.21Unclear
Bofanglutide 18 mg injection every 2 weeks
BOFANG_SC_18MG_Q2W
2.07 (-5.46 to 9.04)-8.81 to 12.60Unclear
Bofanglutide 24 mg injection every 2 weeks
BOFANG_SC_24MG_Q2W
1.53 (-6.11 to 8.70)-9.03 to 12.12Unclear
Bofanglutide 12 mg injection every 2 weeks
BOFANG_SC_12MG_Q2W
1.29 (-6.35 to 8.58)-9.28 to 11.80Unclear
Bofanglutide 48 mg injection every 2 weeks
BOFANG_SC_48MG_Q2W
1.04 (-6.74 to 8.30)-9.69 to 11.16Unclear
Bofanglutide 24 mg injection once weekly
BOFANG_SC_24MG_QW
0.21 (-7.36 to 7.48)-10.41 to 10.59Unclear

Ranking

How likely each treatment is to be among the best. Rankings ignore the size of differences and their certainty, so read them with the effects above.

League table

Every treatment against every other: mean difference of the row treatment versus the column treatment, posterior median and 95% credible interval. Green: row clearly better; red: row clearly worse.
Every treatment in a row compared with every treatment in a column
Row versus columnPLACEBOSEMA_SC_2p4MG_QWBOFANG_SC_18MG_Q2WBOFANG_SC_24MG_Q2WBOFANG_SC_12MG_Q2WBOFANG_SC_48MG_Q2WBOFANG_SC_24MG_QW
PLACEBOPLACEBO-2.19
-9.80 to 5.09		-2.07
-9.04 to 5.46		-1.53
-8.70 to 6.11		-1.29
-8.58 to 6.35		-1.04
-8.30 to 6.74		-0.21
-7.48 to 7.36
SEMA_SC_2p4MG_QW2.19
-5.09 to 9.80		SEMA_SC_2p4MG_QW0.10
-9.74 to 10.87		0.64
-9.43 to 11.57		0.86
-8.95 to 11.31		1.17
-8.78 to 12.19		1.93
-8.10 to 13.01
BOFANG_SC_18MG_Q2W2.07
-5.46 to 9.04		-0.10
-10.87 to 9.74		BOFANG_SC_18MG_Q2W0.54
-7.08 to 8.44		0.78
-6.99 to 8.64		1.08
-7.15 to 9.08		1.85
-5.74 to 9.44
BOFANG_SC_24MG_Q2W1.53
-6.11 to 8.70		-0.64
-11.57 to 9.43		-0.54
-8.44 to 7.08		BOFANG_SC_24MG_Q2W0.22
-7.56 to 8.05		0.52
-7.14 to 8.26		1.30
-6.36 to 8.99
BOFANG_SC_12MG_Q2W1.29
-6.35 to 8.58		-0.86
-11.31 to 8.95		-0.78
-8.64 to 6.99		-0.22
-8.05 to 7.56		BOFANG_SC_12MG_Q2W0.28
-7.81 to 8.62		1.10
-6.75 to 9.21
BOFANG_SC_48MG_Q2W1.04
-6.74 to 8.30		-1.17
-12.19 to 8.78		-1.08
-9.08 to 7.15		-0.52
-8.26 to 7.14		-0.28
-8.62 to 7.81		BOFANG_SC_48MG_Q2W0.79
-7.45 to 8.57
BOFANG_SC_24MG_QW0.21
-7.36 to 7.48		-1.93
-13.01 to 8.10		-1.85
-9.44 to 5.74		-1.30
-8.99 to 6.36		-1.10
-9.21 to 6.75		-0.79
-8.57 to 7.45		BOFANG_SC_24MG_QW

Heterogeneity, fit and convergence

Bayesian random effects (primary)

Heterogeneity (tau)
2.413 (95% CrI 0.103 to 8.204)
Residual deviance
8.0 for 8 data points
DIC
16.0 (pD 8.0)
Largest R-hat
1.005
Smallest ESS
bulk 1,853, tail 2,671
Divergent transitions
0
Convergence
All criteria met
Priors
PR01 N(0, 40^2); PR03 N(0, 20^2); PR07 half normal(0, 4^2) on tau

Inconsistency

Do trials comparing two treatments directly agree with the indirect evidence through other treatments?

No comparison here has both direct and indirect evidence, so inconsistency cannot be checked by node splitting.

Small study effects

A comparison adjusted funnel plot: each point is one trial comparison, centered on its own network estimate. Asymmetry can signal that small trials with unfavorable results are missing.

Fewer than ten trial comparisons, too few to judge funnel plot asymmetry.

Comparability of the trials

Checked across designs (the set of treatments each trial compares) for eligibility, outcome definition and assessment, and the baseline factors above. Flags point to possible intransitivity; notes describe variation that is not tied to design.
  • FlagOutcome assessment, analysis set: confounded with design: full_analysis 1, modified_itt 1
  • FlagOutcome assessment, instrument: confounded with design: not stated 1, SF-36v2 1
  • FlagOutcome assessment, intercurrent events (discontinuation): confounded with design: not stated 1, treatment_policy 1
  • NoteOutcome assessment, time point: selected time points span 30 to 68 weeks
Comparability items per trial
Trialtime weeksanalysis setdefinitioninstrumentadjudicatedproportion methodintercurrent events (discontinuation)intercurrent events (rescue)blindingfundingstart yearEligibility
STEP 168full_analysisnot statednot statednot statednot statednot statednot stateddouble_blindindustry2018adults; BMI 30 or more, or 27 or more with a weight related condition; no diabetes; HbA1c below 6.5 percent
NCT0625656230modified_ittnot statedSF-36v2not statednot statedtreatment_policynot stateddouble_blindindustry2023age 18 to 75; BMI 24 to <28 kg/m2 with comorbidity or 28 or more (Chinese criteria); no diabetes

Trial data

What each trial contributes. Arm rows give the arm value with its standard error, or events over participants; contrast rows give the mean difference on the analysis scale against the trial's first row. Flags mark converted, combined or approximated inputs.
Trial data entering this analysis
TrialArmTreatmentWeekDataValueSEEvents / NFlagsSource
STEP 1A1SEMA_SC_2p4MG_QW68arm, change2.4000.1941,195registry:outcomes
STEP 1A2PLACEBO68arm, change0.2000.298566registry:outcomes
NCT06256562A1BOFANG_SC_12MG_Q2W30arm, change2.9900.57052R0002409:Supplement Table S5
NCT06256562A2BOFANG_SC_18MG_Q2W30arm, change3.7700.54453R0002409:Supplement Table S5
NCT06256562A3BOFANG_SC_24MG_Q2W30arm, change3.2300.55052R0002409:Supplement Table S5
NCT06256562A4BOFANG_SC_48MG_Q2W30arm, change2.7300.54064R0002409:Supplement Table S5
NCT06256562A5BOFANG_SC_24MG_QW30arm, change1.9300.57053R0002409:Supplement Table S5
NCT06256562A6PLACEBO30arm, change1.6700.50066R0002409:Supplement Table S5

Rerun this analysis yourself

Remove treatments or trials and refit the frequentist and Bayesian models in your browser, with the same methods as the published analysis.

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