Network meta-analysis

Weight loss of 10 percent or more

Type 2 diabetes (adults); background therapy: one or more non insulin glucose lowering drugs

weeks 20 to 40 (target week 26)Treatment policyEach dose separatelyOdds ratio

Randomized trials

Treatments

4,363

Participants

208

Events

In plain language

Across 4 trials with 4,363 participants, 3 of 6 treatments had a clearly better result than placebo on weight loss of 10 percent or more, and for 3 the evidence could not tell them apart from placebo. The most favorable estimate was for Semaglutide 14 mg oral once daily (original tablet): odds ratio 11.05 (95% credible interval 3.10 to 43.87).

Higher values favor the treatment. "Clearly" means the 95% credible interval excludes no difference. These are averages across trials; they do not say how any one person will respond. Not medical advice.

Network of trials

Each circle is a treatment; each line joins treatments that were randomized against each other in at least one trial.

Node area shows participants; line width shows trials comparing two treatments directly. Blue: GLP-1 receptor agonist containing treatments; grey: comparators. Hover over or tab to a node or line for details.

Effects compared with Placebo

Odds ratio. Higher values favor the treatment.

Versus Placebo, log scale. Blue: Bayesian random effects posterior median with 95% credible interval (thick) and 95% prediction interval (dashed). Amber diamond: frequentist estimate with 95% confidence interval. Hover over or tab to a row for its values.

Effects of each treatment versus Placebo
Treatment	Bayesian OR (95% CrI)	95% prediction interval	Verdict
Semaglutide 14 mg oral once daily (original tablet) SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	11.05 (3.10 to 43.87)	2.35 to 52.38	Better
Semaglutide 7 mg oral once daily (original tablet) SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	6.77 (1.65 to 28.80)	1.26 to 33.11	Better
Liraglutide 1.8 mg subcutaneous once daily LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD	4.58 (1.16 to 19.74)	0.88 to 24.73	Better
Dulaglutide 0.75 mg subcutaneous once weekly DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW	1.67 (0.09 to 14.53)	0.08 to 16.87	Unclear
Sitagliptin SITAGLIPTIN	1.27 (0.25 to 5.99)	0.21 to 7.11	Unclear
Semaglutide 3 mg oral once daily (original tablet) SEMA_PO_3MG_QD	1.14 (0.24 to 5.17)	0.19 to 5.97	Unclear

Ranking

How likely each treatment is to be among the best. Rankings ignore the size of differences and their certainty, so read them with the effects above.

League table

Every treatment against every other: odds ratio of the row treatment versus the column treatment, posterior median and 95% credible interval. Green: row clearly better; red: row clearly worse.

Every treatment in a row compared with every treatment in a column
Row versus column	PLACEBO	SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD	DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW	SITAGLIPTIN	SEMA_PO_3MG_QD
PLACEBO	PLACEBO	0.09 0.02 to 0.32	0.15 0.03 to 0.61	0.22 0.05 to 0.86	0.60 0.07 to 10.53	0.79 0.17 to 4.00	0.88 0.19 to 4.18
SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	11.05 3.10 to 43.87	SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	1.62 0.91 to 3.16	2.43 0.84 to 6.08	6.34 0.98 to 109	8.60 3.86 to 22.92	9.62 4.53 to 24.90
SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	6.77 1.65 to 28.80	0.62 0.32 to 1.10	SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	1.50 0.43 to 4.36	3.92 0.57 to 65.22	5.32 2.32 to 13.94	5.95 2.66 to 15.12
LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD	4.58 1.16 to 19.74	0.41 0.16 to 1.20	0.67 0.23 to 2.35	LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD	2.71 0.33 to 48.33	3.55 1.09 to 15.75	3.93 1.22 to 17.45
DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW	1.67 0.09 to 14.53	0.16 0.01 to 1.02	0.26 0.02 to 1.75	0.37 0.02 to 3.03	DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW	1.35 0.08 to 11.09	1.53 0.09 to 11.30
SITAGLIPTIN	1.27 0.25 to 5.99	0.12 0.04 to 0.26	0.19 0.07 to 0.43	0.28 0.06 to 0.92	0.74 0.09 to 12.84	SITAGLIPTIN	1.11 0.38 to 3.24
SEMA_PO_3MG_QD	1.14 0.24 to 5.17	0.10 0.04 to 0.22	0.17 0.07 to 0.38	0.25 0.06 to 0.82	0.65 0.09 to 11.06	0.90 0.31 to 2.60	SEMA_PO_3MG_QD

Heterogeneity, fit and convergence

Bayesian random effects (primary)

Heterogeneity (tau): 0.284 (95% CrI 0.059 to 0.946), log scale
Residual deviance: 19.5 for 15 data points
DIC: 29.9 (pD 10.4)
Largest R-hat: 1.001
Smallest ESS: bulk 1,816, tail 2,693
Divergent transitions: 0
Convergence: All criteria met
Priors: PR02 N(0, 5^2); PR05 N(0, 2.5^2); PR09 log normal(-2.53, 1.58^2) on tau^2 (General physical health indicators, pharm vs pharm)

Inconsistency

Do trials comparing two treatments directly agree with the indirect evidence through other treatments?

No comparison here has both direct and indirect evidence, so inconsistency cannot be checked by node splitting.

Small study effects

A comparison adjusted funnel plot: each point is one trial comparison, centered on its own network estimate. Asymmetry can signal that small trials with unfavorable results are missing.

Fewer than ten trial comparisons, too few to judge funnel plot asymmetry.

Baseline characteristics of the trials

The baseline value of each effect modifier or prognostic factor that applies here, per trial: mean or percent over arms, weighted by the number randomized. A note under a value names a stand in (a median for a mean, 100 minus the male share, Asian subgroup rows, an all Asian site list); "not reported" means no source of the trial prints it.

Baseline effect modifiers and prognostic factors per trial
Trial	Baseline BMI or body weight (kg/m2) effect modifier, prognostic factor; 3 of 4	Sex (percent female) effect modifier, prognostic factor; 4 of 4	Treatment duration (weeks) effect modifier; 4 of 4	Lifestyle co-intervention intensity (none standard intensive) effect modifier, prognostic factor; 4 of 4
PIONEER 4 S000133	32.94	48	52	not_reported
PIONEER 10 S000234	26.26	25.74	52	not_reported
PIONEER 12 S000522	28.58	41.7	26	not_reported
PIONEER 3 S002267	not reported	47.16	78	not_reported

Comparability of the trials

Checked across designs (the set of treatments each trial compares) for eligibility, outcome definition and assessment, and the baseline factors above. Flags point to possible intransitivity; notes describe variation that is not tied to design.

FlagBaseline, Baseline BMI or body weight: not reported by 1 of 4 trials
FlagBaseline, Baseline BMI or body weight: design means range from 26.3 (DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW vs SEMA_PO_14MG_QD vs SEMA_PO_3MG_QD vs SEMA_PO_7MG_QD) to 32.9 (LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD vs PLACEBO vs SEMA_PO_14MG_QD) kg/m2; threshold 3
FlagBaseline, Sex: design means range from 25.7 (DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW vs SEMA_PO_14MG_QD vs SEMA_PO_3MG_QD vs SEMA_PO_7MG_QD) to 48.0 (LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD vs PLACEBO vs SEMA_PO_14MG_QD) percent female; threshold 15
NoteOutcome assessment, definition: mixed: HbA1c below 7.0 percent 1, not stated 3
NoteOutcome assessment, intercurrent events (discontinuation): mixed: hypothetical 3, not stated 1
NoteOutcome assessment, intercurrent events (rescue): mixed: hypothetical 3, not stated 1
NoteRisk of bias, blinding: mixed: double_blind 3, single_blind 1

Comparability items per trial
Trial	time weeks	analysis set	definition	instrument	adjudicated	proportion method	intercurrent events (discontinuation)	intercurrent events (rescue)	blinding	funding	start year	Eligibility
PIONEER 4	26	full_analysis	not stated	not stated	not stated	not stated	hypothetical	hypothetical	double_blind	industry	2016	Age 18 or older; T2D on metformin with or without SGLT2i; HbA1c 7.0 to 9.5 percent; eGFR 60 or more
PIONEER 10	26	full_analysis	not stated	not stated	not stated	not stated	hypothetical	hypothetical	single_blind	industry	2017	Japanese adults 20 or older; T2D; HbA1c 7.0 to 10.5 percent on one oral glucose lowering drug
PIONEER 12	26	full_analysis	not stated	not stated	not stated	not stated	hypothetical	hypothetical	double_blind	industry	2019	adults with type 2 diabetes on metformin, HbA1c 7.0 to 10.5 percent
PIONEER 3	26	full_analysis	HbA1c below 7.0 percent	not stated	not stated	not stated	not stated	not stated	double_blind	industry	2016	adults with T2D; HbA1c 7.0 to 10.5 percent; metformin with or without sulfonylurea

Trial data

What each trial contributes. Arm rows give the arm value with its standard error, or events over participants; contrast rows give the odds ratio on the analysis scale (log) against the trial's first row. Flags mark converted, combined or approximated inputs.

Trial data entering this analysis
Trial	Arm	Treatment	Week	Data	Events / N	Source
PIONEER 4	A1	SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	26	arm, responders	39 / 278	R0015836:Table 2
PIONEER 4	A2	LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD	26	arm, responders	16 / 271	R0015836:Table 2
PIONEER 4	A3	PLACEBO	26	arm, responders	0 / 134	R0015836:Table 2
PIONEER 10	A1	SEMA_PO_3MG_QD	26	arm, responders	0 / 128	R0018421:Supplement Table S5
PIONEER 10	A2	SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	26	arm, responders	6 / 128	R0018421:Supplement Table S5
PIONEER 10	A3	SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	26	arm, responders	8 / 128	R0018421:Supplement Table S5
PIONEER 10	A4	DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW	26	arm, responders	1 / 64	R0018421:Supplement Table S5
PIONEER 12	A1	SEMA_PO_3MG_QD	26	arm, responders	5 / 343	R0019776:Table 2
PIONEER 12	A2	SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	26	arm, responders	24 / 342	R0019776:Table 2
PIONEER 12	A3	SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	26	arm, responders	42 / 333	R0019776:Table 2
PIONEER 12	A4	SITAGLIPTIN	26	arm, responders	2 / 351	R0019776:Table 2
PIONEER 3	A1	SEMA_PO_3MG_QD	26	arm, responders	5 / 466	registry:outcomes
PIONEER 3	A2	SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	26	arm, responders	23 / 465	registry:outcomes
PIONEER 3	A3	SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	26	arm, responders	29 / 465	registry:outcomes
PIONEER 3	A4	SITAGLIPTIN	26	arm, responders	8 / 467	registry:outcomes

Rerun this analysis yourself

Remove treatments or trials and refit the frequentist and Bayesian models in your browser, with the same methods as the published analysis.

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