Network meta-analysis

Weight loss of 5 percent or more

Type 2 diabetes (adults); background therapy: one or more non insulin glucose lowering drugs

weeks 40 to 104 (target week 68)Hypothetical (as if everyone stayed on treatment)Each dose separatelyOdds ratio

Randomized trials

Treatments

923

Participants

237

Events

In plain language

Across 2 trials with 923 participants, 1 of 5 treatments had a clearly better result than placebo on weight loss of 5 percent or more, and for 4 the evidence could not tell them apart from placebo. The most favorable estimate was for Semaglutide 14 mg oral once daily (original tablet): odds ratio 6.09 (95% credible interval 2.18 to 15.13).

Higher values favor the treatment. "Clearly" means the 95% credible interval excludes no difference. These are averages across trials; they do not say how any one person will respond. Not medical advice.

Network of trials

Each circle is a treatment; each line joins treatments that were randomized against each other in at least one trial.

Node area shows participants; line width shows trials comparing two treatments directly. Blue: GLP-1 receptor agonist containing treatments; grey: comparators. Hover over or tab to a node or line for details.

Effects compared with Placebo

Odds ratio. Higher values favor the treatment.

Versus Placebo, log scale. Blue: Bayesian random effects posterior median with 95% credible interval (thick) and 95% prediction interval (dashed). Amber diamond: frequentist estimate with 95% confidence interval. Hover over or tab to a row for its values.

Effects of each treatment versus Placebo
Treatment	Bayesian OR (95% CrI)	95% prediction interval	Frequentist OR (95% CI)	Verdict
Semaglutide 14 mg oral once daily (original tablet) SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	6.09 (2.18 to 15.13)	1.51 to 21.02	7.11 (3.49 to 14.47)	Better
Semaglutide 7 mg oral once daily (original tablet) SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	3.70 (0.89 to 12.65)	0.67 to 15.67	4.54 (1.74 to 11.85)	Unclear
Liraglutide 1.8 mg subcutaneous once daily LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD	2.28 (0.78 to 6.26)	0.53 to 8.83	2.58 (1.25 to 5.31)	Unclear
Dulaglutide 0.75 mg subcutaneous once weekly DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW	1.25 (0.22 to 5.69)	0.17 to 6.74	1.66 (0.45 to 6.16)	Unclear
Semaglutide 3 mg oral once daily (original tablet) SEMA_PO_3MG_QD	0.86 (0.18 to 3.58)	0.14 to 4.50	1.10 (0.32 to 3.74)	Unclear

Ranking

How likely each treatment is to be among the best. Rankings ignore the size of differences and their certainty, so read them with the effects above.

League table

Every treatment against every other: odds ratio of the row treatment versus the column treatment, posterior median and 95% credible interval. Green: row clearly better; red: row clearly worse.

Every treatment in a row compared with every treatment in a column
Row versus column	PLACEBO	SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD	DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW	SEMA_PO_3MG_QD
PLACEBO	PLACEBO	0.16 0.07 to 0.46	0.27 0.08 to 1.12	0.44 0.16 to 1.29	0.80 0.18 to 4.52	1.16 0.28 to 5.56
SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	6.09 2.18 to 15.13	SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	1.67 0.62 to 4.59	2.70 1.02 to 6.47	4.85 1.31 to 22.11	6.97 2.15 to 26.26
SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	3.70 0.89 to 12.65	0.60 0.22 to 1.62	SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	1.61 0.40 to 5.52	2.91 0.75 to 13.10	4.17 1.17 to 16.50
LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD	2.28 0.78 to 6.26	0.37 0.15 to 0.98	0.62 0.18 to 2.51	LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD	1.80 0.41 to 10.52	2.62 0.61 to 13.59
DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW	1.25 0.22 to 5.69	0.21 0.05 to 0.77	0.34 0.08 to 1.33	0.56 0.10 to 2.47	DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW	1.44 0.26 to 7.11
SEMA_PO_3MG_QD	0.86 0.18 to 3.58	0.14 0.04 to 0.46	0.24 0.06 to 0.85	0.38 0.07 to 1.64	0.69 0.14 to 3.78	SEMA_PO_3MG_QD

Heterogeneity, fit and convergence

Bayesian random effects (primary)

Heterogeneity (tau): 0.263 (95% CrI 0.061 to 1.059), log scale
Residual deviance: 7.0 for 7 data points
DIC: 13.8 (pD 6.9)
Largest R-hat: 1.002
Smallest ESS: bulk 2,527, tail 2,814
Divergent transitions: 0
Convergence: All criteria met
Priors: PR02 N(0, 5^2); PR05 N(0, 2.5^2); PR09 log normal(-2.53, 1.58^2) on tau^2 (General physical health indicators, pharm vs pharm)

Frequentist check (netmeta)

Method: inverse variance, REML, OR
Tau: 0.000
Q (total): 0.00 on 0 df
Q (between designs): 0.00

Inconsistency

Do trials comparing two treatments directly agree with the indirect evidence through other treatments?

No comparison here has both direct and indirect evidence, so inconsistency cannot be checked by node splitting; the between designs Q above is the global check.

Small study effects

A comparison adjusted funnel plot: each point is one trial comparison, centered on its own network estimate. Asymmetry can signal that small trials with unfavorable results are missing.

Fewer than ten trial comparisons, too few to judge funnel plot asymmetry.

Baseline characteristics of the trials

The baseline value of each effect modifier or prognostic factor that applies here, per trial: mean or percent over arms, weighted by the number randomized. A note under a value names a stand in (a median for a mean, 100 minus the male share, Asian subgroup rows, an all Asian site list); "not reported" means no source of the trial prints it.

Baseline effect modifiers and prognostic factors per trial
Trial	Baseline BMI or body weight (kg/m2) effect modifier, prognostic factor; 2 of 2	Sex (percent female) effect modifier, prognostic factor; 2 of 2	Treatment duration (weeks) effect modifier; 2 of 2	Lifestyle co-intervention intensity (none standard intensive) effect modifier, prognostic factor; 2 of 2
PIONEER 4 S000133	32.94	48	52	not_reported
PIONEER 10 S000234	26.26	25.74	52	not_reported

Comparability of the trials

Checked across designs (the set of treatments each trial compares) for eligibility, outcome definition and assessment, and the baseline factors above. Flags point to possible intransitivity; notes describe variation that is not tied to design.

FlagBaseline, Baseline BMI or body weight: design means range from 26.3 (DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW vs SEMA_PO_14MG_QD vs SEMA_PO_3MG_QD vs SEMA_PO_7MG_QD) to 32.9 (LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD vs PLACEBO vs SEMA_PO_14MG_QD) kg/m2; threshold 3
FlagBaseline, Sex: design means range from 25.7 (DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW vs SEMA_PO_14MG_QD vs SEMA_PO_3MG_QD vs SEMA_PO_7MG_QD) to 48.0 (LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD vs PLACEBO vs SEMA_PO_14MG_QD) percent female; threshold 15
FlagOutcome assessment, definition: confounded with design: HbA1c below 7.0 percent 1, not stated 1
FlagOutcome assessment, proportion method: confounded with design: not stated 1, observed 1
FlagRisk of bias, blinding: confounded with design: double_blind 1, single_blind 1
NoteData handling, input conversions: count_from_percent 3

Comparability items per trial
Trial	time weeks	analysis set	definition	instrument	adjudicated	proportion method	intercurrent events (discontinuation)	intercurrent events (rescue)	blinding	funding	start year	Eligibility
PIONEER 4	52	full_analysis	not stated	not stated	not stated	observed	hypothetical	hypothetical	double_blind	industry	2016	Age 18 or older; T2D on metformin with or without SGLT2i; HbA1c 7.0 to 9.5 percent; eGFR 60 or more
PIONEER 10	52	full_analysis	HbA1c below 7.0 percent	not stated	not stated	not stated	hypothetical	hypothetical	single_blind	industry	2017	Japanese adults 20 or older; T2D; HbA1c 7.0 to 10.5 percent on one oral glucose lowering drug

Trial data

What each trial contributes. Arm rows give the arm value with its standard error, or events over participants; contrast rows give the odds ratio on the analysis scale (log) against the trial's first row. Flags mark converted, combined or approximated inputs.

Trial data entering this analysis
Trial	Arm	Treatment	Week	Data	Events / N	Flags	Source
PIONEER 4	A1	SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	52	arm, responders	110 / 223	count_from_percent	R0015836:Figure 3C
PIONEER 4	A2	LIRA_SC_1p8MG_QD	52	arm, responders	60 / 230	count_from_percent	R0015836:Figure 3C
PIONEER 4	A3	PLACEBO	52	arm, responders	10 / 83	count_from_percent	R0015836:Figure 3C
PIONEER 10	A1	SEMA_PO_3MG_QD	52	arm, responders	5 / 103		R0018421:Table 4
PIONEER 10	A2	SEMA_PO_7MG_QD	52	arm, responders	20 / 115		R0018421:Table 4
PIONEER 10	A3	SEMA_PO_14MG_QD	52	arm, responders	28 / 113		R0018421:Table 4
PIONEER 10	A4	DULA_SC_0p75MG_QW	52	arm, responders	4 / 56		R0018421:Table 4

Rerun this analysis yourself

Remove treatments or trials and refit the frequentist and Bayesian models in your browser, with the same methods as the published analysis.

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